Research On The Effectiveness Of Economic Sanctions Deterrence Function

In the international system,the economic sanctions are one of the important foreign policy tools taken by international actors to achieve specific political,economic,military and diplomatic goals.The economic sanctions have multiple functions,among which the deterrence function takes an important part.However,with the increasing use of economic sanctions in international system,the deterrence function is faced with the problems of unstable effectiveness and inability to exert the expected effects.Therefore,this paper explores the following questions: what factors affect the effectiveness of the deterrence function of economic sanctions? What variables do these factors include? How do their influencing mechanisms work?This paper first clarifies that the deterrence function is included in economic sanctions.On one hand,from the perspective of economic sanctions,as a mandatory foreign policy tool,the economic sanctions have punishment,coercion,signaling,and deterrence functions.And the deterrence function is the deep-seated function of economic sanctions.On the other hand,from the perspective of deterrence strategy,an economic sanction can be used as an economic weapon to exert its deterrence,because it has the necessity and feasibility to become deterrence means.Since the deterrence function is very important and difficult to achieve,it is necessary to study the factors and implementation mechanism to make the deterrence function of economic sanctions work.On this basis,according to the research of deterrence theory on the effectiveness of strategic deterrence,this study,starting with the sender's strength,the willingness to initiate sanctions,the transmission of deterrence information,and combined with the means of economic sanctions,determines the specific variables included in these four factors through qualitative and quantitative analyses.And the variables of these four factors are measured in this study,thus to clarify their respective mechanisms.Finally they are analyzed and tested with two cases.Then,this paper analyzes the contents and modes of action of the four factors —strength,means,willingness,and deterrence information transmission of economic sanctions.Firstly,the strength of economic sanctions includes the sender's National Material Capabilities(NMC),economic-damaging capabilities,deterrence of nuclear weapons,and the international support degree for sanctions.Entropy method and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)are used to make quantitative analysis of the historical data and survey data collected,thus to determine the contribution degree of each of the above elements to the strength of economic sanctions.Secondly,this paper clarifies that the means used for economic sanctions incorporate trade sanctions and financial sanctions,among which the separate use of trade sanctions is hindered by more and more obstacles,while financial means have a more obvious advantage in economic sanctions.Thirdly,the assessment of the deterrence willingness of the sender is the evaluation on the net benefit with sanctions and without sanctions.If the former is greater than the latter,the willingness to initiate sanctions will be strong.Otherwise,the willingness will be weak.Based on this logic,five kinds of benefit-cost calculation models which are usually produced by the sender in economic sanctions are summarized in this paper.Fourthly,the analysis of the transmission of deterrence information is mainly carried out from three aspects: the information expression of the sender,the information transmission routes and the understanding of the information by the target country.Finally,this paper analyzes the action process and influencing ways of the four factors in economic sanctions through the analysis of a success case and a failure case.This paper focuses on the deterrence function of economic sanctions,and attempts to deepen and refine the analysis of this function and its effectiveness.In the meantime,in order to better understand the economic sanction policies of the United States and other western countries in future international situation,to stimulate the positive significance of economic sanctions in counter-terrorism,preventing weapon proliferation and other specific targets,and to reasonably respond to the challenges that China will face when facing economic sanctions,studies on economic sanctions and the effectiveness of deterrence function still need to be strengthened and expanded.