Rethinking Of The Contemporary Deterrence Theory

Deterrence Theory has been one of the most significant ones in the US foreign Policies since the Cold War for a long time.It was developed and get matured during the Cold War.Since then,we can hardly find a theory which could continuously have an impact on the national security and foreign policies of the United States,compared with the Deterrence Theory.Even nowadays,the United States still has been relying on the deterrence power of the Atlantic League system and the Pacific Alliance system for its region,and it has far-reaching influence on the evolution of the regional patterns and the international patterns.However,the Deterrence Theory has been accompanied by a congenial logic paradox since its birth.It is only in the context of the US-Soviet struggle for hegemony during the Cold War period that it concealed the problems and difficulties caused by deterrence.With the ending of the Cold War and the missing of "Bipolar" pattern,"Only super Power and Multi-Great Power" is our international political pattern,which have exposed the predicament of the original deterrence theory.Today's research on deterrence strategies is often overshadowed by regional security strategies(such as the "Rebalance toward Asia " implemented by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region during the Obama era),which makes us neglect the overall and systematic study of the deterrence strategy as a medium-term theory.If we consider the deterrence strategy as a whole theoretical system,we will find that there are many logical loopholes and theoretical defects in the system.It has been more than twenty years since the DPRK nuclear issue began in the 1990 s.However,the Korean peninsula has not shown any signs of solving the problem.On the contrary,North Korea's nuclear capabilities have been improved during the continued rounds of sanctions imposed by the international community.The US's deterrence against North Korea and North Korea's breakthrough in its own security dilemma once again showed a rising trend.This dissertation takes the DPRK nuclear issue as a typical case,makes a modest reflection on the logic and predicament of the traditional deterrence theory,and according to that,it proposes two revised viewpoints:Firstly,the deterrence of large countries against small and medium-sized countries has limits.If they exceed the limit,deterrence becomes a compelling situation,which will stimulate the rebound of the right of small and medium-sized countries to defend their national self-defense.Deterrence strategy will then lose its effectiveness.Secondly,deterrence is not limited to big countries versus big countries,or large countries to small and medium-sized countries.Small countries may also deter major powers,especially by possessing nuclear weapons.Based on the latest changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula,this dissertation also expounds the motives behind the current mitigation and change of the DPRK nuclear issue with a revised deterrence theory.It also made its own judgments and reflections on the US policy towards the DPRK and the future direction of the situation on the Peninsula.