Research On Network Public Opinion Risk Assessment Of Sudden Natural Disasters

In recent years,China has suffered from sudden natural disasters,The resulting network public opinion often has some risks,how to reasonably monitor the public opinion and correctly evaluate the public opinion risk is an urgent problem to be solved.The focus of this paper is on the situation of sudden natural disasters,this paper puts forward the monitoring index system of public opinion risk,discusses the degree of network public opinion risk caused by the event,and gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the public opinion of diff-erent risk degrees.Based on the sudden natural disasters in recent years,this paper mainly studies the following aspects:(1)To study the network public opinion risk monitoring system of sudden natural disasters.In view of the uncertainty of sudden disasters and the rapid spread of network public opinion itself,the first problem solved in this study is the selection of indicators in the network public opinion risk monitoring systm of sudden disasters.Taking the sudden disaster as the starting point of the whole research,this paper combs the factors that may exist and transform into the public opinion risk in the process of changing the sudden disaster into the network public opinion after the sudden disaster occurs.By using the methods of literature combing and expert investigation,this paper provides an analytical basis for the risk assessment of public opinion in the network of sudden disasters.This section focuses on two issues:First,sudden disaster network public opinion risk monitoring index selection.In the time series,with the development and evolution of emergencies,there is a complex relationship between the characteristics of public opinion risk in the network of emergencies,and reflects the spread of public opinion risk in the network of sudden disasters.In this study,the theory of sudden disaster and the theory of information dissemination are applied to the construction of public opinion risk monitoring system in suddel disaster network,the construction principle of public opinion risk monitoring and the division of each classification index are explored,and a multi-level index explanation is put forward around the characteristics of each dimension index,which makes the index system of public opinion risk monitoring in sudden disaster network have dynamic adjustment while being complete and rich.Second,the emergency disaster network public opinion risk monitoring index optimization selection.After the primary selection of the monitoring index,the principal component analysis method was used to screen the index again.The dimensionality reduction idea of principal component analysis can transform a large number of complex indexes into the information existing in a few main comprehensive indexes.By analyzing the eigenvalues produced by variable projection transformation and the weight calculation of entropy weight method,the number,types and proportion of the main components in the indexes can be determined,and the contribution rate of each index to the public opinion risk of sudden disaster network can be reflected.(2)The risk evaluation model of public opinion in sudden disaster network is studied.In order to improve the efficiency of public opinion management in sudden disaster network and further reduce the secondary negative impact of public opinion,it is necessary to take the network public opinion risk monitoring index system of sudden natural disaster as the index basis of risk assessment according to the characteristics of public opinion risk,dissemination law and response goal of sudden disaster network.Referring to the selected monitoring index system of public opinion risk in sudden disaster network,combined with the actual sudden disaster scenario information,the factor set affecting the risk of public opinion in sudden disaster network is determined,and the typical historical cases are collected,through projection pursuit and accelerated genetic algorithm,several index factors(high dimensional data)that affect the decision of public opinion risk in disaster network are projected into one dimensional space by mapping.In order to establish the network public opinion risk assessment system of sudden disasters.Based on the judgment of the risk of public opinion in the network of sudden disasters,the information of public opinion in different disaster network is extracted and the model of public opinion assessment is constructed.Based on the principle,the risk level of public opinion in the network is divided according to certain principles,and the countermeasures for each risk level is put forward.The risk level of public opinion in sudden disaster network is refined into four grades,which can reflect the changing trend of public opinion risk in sudden disaster network to the maximum extent.On the one hand,it provides realistic basis and intellectual support for the relevant govermment departments to carry out the follow-up response to the network public opinion of sudden disasters in a planned way,and reduces the possibility of the occurrence of secondary social hazards;on the other hand,according to the network public opinion risk assessment system of sudden disasters,the early warning and monitoring of network public opinion is carried out from the source to reduce the probability of similar emergencies or emergencies.(3)Study the risk response strategy of public opinion.Based on the evaluation result of public opinion risk,the public opinion risk can be divided into four levels,and the hazard degree of public opinion risk of each level is different.Therefore,from the perspective of public opinion risk level,the public opinion response strategy is established from the four levels of government department,network media,other social organizations and Internet users.The theoretical contributions of this paper are as follows:(l)the risk monitoring index system of natural disaster event network public opinion is established.It expands the theory of public opinion risk index,provides a set of ready-made evaluation scheme for natural disaster event public opinion risk,effectively makes up and enriches the difficult problem of public opinion risk evaluation,and further develops the related theory of public opinion evaluation.(2)the applicability and possibility of the improved projection pursuit model of genetic algorithm for public opinion evaluation are analyzed,and tlie coupling model is optimized.(3)the AGA-PP coupling theory model for public opinion risk assessment is built,which further expands the application of quantitative model in public opinion research.