Sino-US Trade Imbalance Under The Value Added Trade Accounting

By using the data of World Input-Output Database(WIOD)during the year 2000 to 2014,this paper explains the concept and method of value-added trade(TiVA)accounting based on decomposition of the final demand product value by country.Referring to the theory of value added accounting studied by Johnson R.C.,Guillermo N.(2012),this paper constructs the statistical model of bilateral trade value added and the statistical model of customs,and recalculates the bilateral and global multilateral trade added value,and measures the specific situation of China's manufacturing sector exports to the United States.According to the Technology Intensity Definition made by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD),China's 19 manufacturing sectors are divided into four parts,which are Low-technology(LT)Industries,Medium-low-technology(MLT)Industries,Medium-high-technology(MHT)Industries,High-technology(HT)Industries.Then we can further clarify the pattern of bilateral trade benefit distribution.Research indicates:Firstly,the traditional statistical method of gross trade by customs overestimates China's total foreign exports about 20% to 30%,and it does not accurately reflect the true level of China's exports.That's to say,the traditional statistical method of gross trade by customs exaggerates the scale of China's exports.Secondly,the traditional statistical method of gross trade by customs exaggerates the bilateral trade balance between China and the United States,and overvalues the bilateral trade balance about 20% to 30%.Thirdly,the value of the manufacturing sectors of Low-technology(LT),Medium-low-technology(MLT),Medium-high-technology(MHT)and High-technology(HT)is overvalued respectively.And the value of High-technology(HT)manufacturing sectors is overvalued most clearly,then the others.In the traditional statistical method of gross trade by customs,during 2000 to 2014,the structure of China's manufacturing export to the United States is more obvious,especially the proportion of China's manufacturing exports to the United States increases.However,in the statistical model of bilateral trade value added,the structure of China's manufacturing export to the United States is less obvious.Even the proportion of China's manufacturing exports to the United States decreases.In other words,the traditional statistical method of gross trade by customs to some extent covers up the changes of the structure of China's manufacturing exports to the United States.But in the statistical model of bilateral trade value added,relative to the United States,China's international division of labor status is not improved with the increase of China's manufacturing export.Finally,according to the results of empirical research,the paper summarizes the whole paper.Combined with the actual situation of Sino-US bilateral economic and trade relations,the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the following three aspects: the construction and improvement of the new value-added international trade accounting system,China's manufacturing industry to upgrade,and advancing the global trade liberalization and facilitation.