| This dissertation is to conduct research how the risks on Public-Private-Partnership(PPP)of which the bearer is uncertain can be allocated.Public-Private Partnership(PPP)is long-term partnerships between the public sector and private organization launched by the government for specific new public projects,which is the most popular and rapid-growing mode of infrastructure construction.According to an uncompleted statistic that the investment amount of global PPP projects is more than one trillion US dollar,there are more than ten thousand PPP projects in China only,the amount of which is more than one trillion RMB.It is estimated that the number and amount would double before 2020.Nevertheless,due to the long-term,huge-investment,plenty participation parties and discrepancy on the purpose of each parties,PPP project is a mode with the highest risk of infrastructure construction compared with traditional government purchase and self-built.Therefore,the risk management of PPP projects,especially the part of all parties-risk allocation is a very important issue in PPP mode.Li B,et.al conducted empirical analysis of the PPP projects in UK,generalized 18 critical factors that would help with the success of PPP projects,indicated that,the most important factor among which is fair and reasonable allocation,the strength of private investors and the availability of fund.Even there are many civil and foreign articles distinguished the risk list of PPP projects,and giving out the mechanism and frame of risk allocation,however,there are still a dozen or so risks in the list,the bearer of which is uncertain,and there arefew articles researching the cause of those.In this dissertation,those risks are called bearer-uncertain risk.This article considers that,those bearer-uncertain risks left huge pitfalls on the operation and development of PPP mode.So it is of theoretic and realistic significance for the PPP risk management theories to research the underlying causes of those appearance comprehensively,systematicly and in-depth?Firstly,the dissertation identifies resource dependence,PPP mode,project risk,risk allocation bearer-uncertain risks as the theoretical foundation for further research.Secondly,the existing PPP risk research is carded through literature review,for the viewpoint,content theories and directions of this article,as the support on theory.Thirdly,this dissertation innovatively propose that PPP mode is actually the Contractual strategic alliance between public and private sectors.Based on this,16 bearer-uncertain risks is distinguished through case analyze,literature query,questionnaire,field investigation,forming the risk list of this kind.The causes,bearer and consequence of those risks are confirmed.Through the first two-round Delphy research,the occurrence rate,damage,importance and theoretical allocation preference.Lastly,the research compared the practical risk allocation from the results of the second two-round Delph research with theoretical preference,which turns out that the bearer of 8 among the 16 risks are in consistent,and that of the other 8 are quite different.This dissertation explains the causes with the innovative theory frame for the differences:the inequality arising from the interdependence of public and private resources,pointing out that the inequality mentioned above should be taken into consideration when planning risk allocation.For the quantitative analysis of the allocation plan,this dissertation give a Optimal risk allocation model for the mutual commitment of above risk combing game theory.The important conclusion of this article include:1.The bearer-uncertain risk should be allocated fair,reasonably and efficiently,which critical for the success of PPP project,the causes of above risks require new reasonable theory frame;2.The reason of the uncertainty allocation is due to the difference of rely on the resource from the other party,the exclusiveness of the invested resource result in the difference in negotiation power;3.The optimal bearing amount calculation model should be given besides the bearer when planning the allocation of above risks.The innovation of this dissertation embodies in the following aspects:1.This dissertation combines resource dependence theory with Incomplete contract theory,forming a Unified theoretical framework that could explain the causes of bearer-uncertain risks strongly,and is of great theory significance for the consummation and development is PPP mode risk management and practical significance for the actual allocation is PPP risks.2.This dissertation research creatively the allocation of bearer-uncertain risks in PPP mode,trying to discover the cause of those risks and giving out suggestions,forming foundation for further research on fair,reasonable and effective allocation of PPP risk allocation system and plan.Even many articles on PPP risk allocation,the research on the content above is rare,so this dissertation is of great significance.3.This dissertation forms a optimal PPP risk allocation model creatively on condition of Asymmetry of power structure with a infinite repeated game model.In two cases of information symmetry and asymmetry.A discussion of optimal PPP risk allocation model is of great significance on not only the practice of PPP risk allocation,and also the development and promotion of PPP mode in China. |
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