The Effects Of Chinese Macroeconomic Control Policies On Commodity Housing Price

Since 2015,commodity housing price rose sharply in the short term which triggering a new round macroeconomic control on commodity housing market once again.The impact of macroeconomic control policies on commodity housing market become a hot topic among academia and practical circle.In light of the high correlation between real estate industry and China’s macro economy,macroeconomic control policies has played an important role in each commodity housing market cycle.The policy circle and commodity housing market cycle interact as both cause and effect.Household portfolio decisions and consumption have a high degree of sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity housing prices,macroeconomic control policies on commodity housing market must be concerned about microeconomic agency’s response.The above mentioned phenomena have brought forward the following research subjects which have much practical significance:what are the key factors affecting the commodity housing market cycle in China?From the experience of previous macroeconomic control,how did the macroeconomic policy affect commodity housing market?Which policy tools could contribute to smoothing cyclical fluctuations in commodity housing market?What are the constraints in the practice of macroeconomic control policies?Among various policy tools,which tool has the best regulation effect?What kind policy or policy combination should China choose to regulate commodity housing market?The thesis delves into above research subjects deeply by employing EBA model,SVAR model,Panel Data model and theoretical model.The main results of this thesis are as follows:1.The age structure of population,the urban disposable income,commodity housing construction costs,real estate credit scale,fiscal expenditure of local government and consumer price index has robust impact on commodity housing price during sample period,i.e.these six factors are the core influence factors of Chinese commodity housing market cycles.2.The monetary policy had actually reacted to the fluctuation of commodity housing price during sample period,i.e.The central bank had taken pertinence measures to regulate commodity housing market.The growth rate of money supply was the first choice for monetary policy to control the commodity housing price in short term,and interest rate was the first choice in long term.Among the interest rate,money supply growth rate and bank credit growth rate,controlling bank credit growth rate has best control effect embodied in not causing significant fluctuations in output and inflation.When monetary policy controls the commodity housing price,it might be faced several constraints,such as the potential adverse impact on macro economy,the incomplete marketization of interest rate and the current financial system.3.There is a significant positive impact of both local government’s fiscal gap and land fiscal revenues on housing price,and the influence of land fiscal revenues on commodity housing price is lagging.This shows that the fiscal gap will lead to the enthusiasm of the local government’s pursuit of land fiscal revenue,land prices will eventually transfer to housing prices,land fiscal revenues had become the intermediate variable when fiscal gap promote to commodity housing price rise.4.Commodity house had entered into most household’s portfolio decision as an important asset.The residential house demand is most sensitive to the change of the down payment ratio of commodity housing mortgage loan,and the mortgage interest rate policy and property tax policy next in importance.In the macro-control of the commodity housing market,we should first use the mortgage down payment policy.If individual policy is difficult to achieve desired results,and then use mortgage interest rate policy.When these two policies are also difficult to achieve the desired effect,we can consider the use of property tax policy and the combination of these three policies.Based on above conclusions,the thesis put forward the suggestion on improving macroeconomic control policy of commodity housing price.