Analysis On The Economic Effect Of China's Soybean Target Price Policy

China's major agricultural products such as wheat,rice,corn,soybeans,etc.have experienced the impact of price support policies.Although these policies have guaranteed the peasants' enthusiasm for planting grain and raised the level of food security,they have had a profound impact on the related industries.In order to change the food price upside down in China,target price policy on soybean and cotton began to implement since 2014.During the implementation of the target price,the price-driven role of the market has been somewhat improved and the market participation of farmers has increased significantly.However,it is undeniable that there are still a series of problems in the implementation of the target price subsidy policy,and the existence of these problems also significantly affects the policy effect of the target price subsidy.Therefore,the recognition of the effect of the target price subsidy policy can not only stay in the theoretical analysis,but also need to combine the actual situation with a clear logic to sort out the effect of the policy.It is of great significance to market-oriented reform of the national grain policy in future,to ensure food security,to coordinate the healthy development of agricultural industry and to increase the income of farmers.Now that the three-year pilot target price policy ends,soybean and maize will implement a uniform subsidy policy which requires a review of past implementation experiences and a clear direction for future reforms.The questions to be answered in this study are as follows:From the perspective of peasant households,how the target prices of soybean affect the planting behavior of peasants?How are the peasants with different family characteristics aware of this policy?Is there any significant increase in output and income of farmers?When considering the impact of other policies,what is the effect of the policy?From a market perspective,what is the effect of soybean target price subsidy on soybean price formation mechanism?How effective is the policy?On this basis,will the factor market price be affected?The research contents are as follows:Research content one:The impact of target price subsidy policy on peasant household production behaviorDiscuss theoretically how policies influence farmers' planting decisions,which in turn change soybean yields and attempt to analyze the likely impact on farmer income and the impact on fanning sustainability.At the same time,it compares with the impact of the policy of temporary storage and purchase of soybean,and analyzes the difference at the micro level.Then relax the assumptions that soybean growers are homogeneous,to further explore the impact of peasant household differences on the policy understanding.At the same time,using the micro-household survey data to empirically analyze the area effect of the policy.Finally,consider the effect of the target price subsidy policy under the influence of the related agricultural products price support policy.Research content two:The effect of target price subsidy on soybean price formation mechanismThis chapter considers the differences in soybean demand,compares the changes in demand before and after the implementation of the soybean target price policy in the policy pilot areas,non-pilot areas and imported soybeans.First,make a horizontal comparison of soybean prices,analyze the conduction relationship between domestic soybean price and imported soybean price;secondly,investigate the price transmission mechanism of domestic soybean price change to soybean oil and soybean meal since the implementation of the target price,and the cointegration relationship between the domestic price and the international price of the two products;Third,in the new pattern of China's soybean market,whether China's soybean futures market has played a "stabilizer" function to the spot price of soybean.Research content three:Analysis of economic welfare effect of target price policyThis study simulates the effect of target price change on the equilibrium of soybean market in our country by constructing a equilibrium movement model.Due to the parameter requirements,the soybean supply elasticity in pilot and non-pilot regions is calculated.Finally,through simulation,analyzed the impact of soybean target price subsidy on the change of government fiscal expenditure and economic welfare.To measure of welfare allocation efficiency of the target price subsidy policy in a market with a high degree of openness.Research content four:The impact of the target price subsidy policy on the factor marketOn the basis of the normative analysis of content three,we further put the factor market into the soybean equilibrium movement model,analyze the "market effect" of the target price on the soybean production factor market of our country,and measure the impact of the policy on the factor demand and the demand price.Furthermore,the "income effect" of the policy is simulated by the reaction of the factor demand and the factor price and the quantity and structure of the factor endowments of different types of growers.The conclusion is as follows:First,the target price has a limited effect on farmers' production,multiplier effect on soybean acreage is weak,the target price more affects the decision-making behavior of farmers in the form of supporting price,and the stimulation of farmers planting area by the policy showed inverted U-shaped.Second,the corn temporary storage policy has restrained the area effect of the target price of soybean due to the comparative advantage of price.Third,the target price subsidy has perfected the mechanism of price formation and changed the position of the recipient of import prices by past.Domestic soybean plays a unique advantage in non-genetically modified soybeans in the field of consumption.There is also a distinct demand for domestic soybean in the oil market.Fourth,under the open market environment,the economic efficiency of the target price subsidy policy is not high,and 35.46%of the government expenditures become deadweight losses.Fifth,the target price subsidies have an impact on the factor markets.Subsidies will eventually raise the price of key elements such as land rents,resulting in the loss of about 30%of the policies.From measuring the achievement of the target price subsidy policy to the welfare analysis and then to the analysis of other policy effects,the research provides a complete framework and quantitative method for price support policy.Specifically,the possible innovations are as follows:First,the combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis to quantify the price of soybeans.Second,when considering the differences in the uses of soybeans in the soybean industry,the distinction between the demand for squeezing and the demand for food should be made.Thirdly,when analyzing the production process,consider the difference between the pilot and non-pilot areas and discuss the welfare of the two regions.Fourth,we simulate the policy effect of the target price by using the soybean partial equilibrium model and introduce the Armington substitution elasticity between domestic soybean and imported soybean,and extend Allen and Hicks's "two inputs,one output" model to describe the input of factors.