| Like other economic activities,agricultural sector also suffers from multiple risks on the globe.Mainly,agricultural risks include technological,institutional,production,market,human resource and credit risks,however,the environmental risk is also hindering in achieving high rate of recurrence.Thus,agricultural risks have great potential to decelerate the growth of a country that may easily augment the poverty level in an area.Keeping in mind this burning issue,a study was staged to determine the farm-level adaptation and income diversification strategies as a result of various agricultural risks faced by the farmers of Sindh Province of Pakistan.For the purpose,farmers' risk behavior and strategies to cope up possible related risks,and the association to socioeconomic attributes,perceived risk sources and coping strategies were included.This study also considered the ?)risk perceptions,?)environmental risk perceptions,?)income diversification strategies,?)diversification strategies managing disaster risk,and?)multiple tools for managing disaster risk.For achieving the objectives of the study,a survey was carried out based on quantitative parameters in Sindh province of Pakistan,in which 480 respondents/farmers from eight districts from the left bank of Indus River were interviewed on a valid and reliable questionnaire using multistage cluster sampling method.However,two software's i.e.SPSS and AMOS helped to estimate the results and developing the Structural Equation Model.The result of the study revealed that the local farmers' were dealing various kinds of risks according to their capacity.Therefore,risk matrix and ELCE(Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent)methods were used to determine farmers risk attitude.The factors influencing farmers' environmental risk perceptions were assessed using binary logistic regression model.Results depict that majority of the farmers are risk averse in nature and perceived that excessive rainfall(74%),salinity and water logging(73%),flooding(67%)and drought/insufficient rainfall(65%)were the foremost risks which are exposed at farm level.Results from the binary logistic regression depicted that farmers perceptions were significantly influenced(either negative or positive)by numerous factors such as age,education,farm remoteness,off-farm income,risk attitude,access to weather info and access to drainage.At the same time,fanners have diverse ways to tackle agricultural risks and most of them employ the income diversification strategies.The determinants of income diversification decisions used by farm households were statistically analyzed.Results show that 69 percent farm households were employing off-farm activities as diversification strategy.Business was the most adopted off-farm diversification strategy followed by government service.The marginal effect of probit regression divulged that one-year increase in education level would results in 2.5%escalation in the probability of farmer to go for off-farm income sources.Also,the multinomial probit regression revealed that adults participating in off-farm works coefficient were negative but highly significant in all diversification strategies.Likewise,fanning area,dependency ratio and family size were found driving factors for participation in off-farm labour activities.Farmers have numerous options for managing disaster risks at farm level,and majority of them simultaneously employ these risk coping instruments,since previous studies have overlooked the relationship among the risk coping adoption decisions.Therefore,the current study was designed to assess factors influencing simultaneous adoption of agricultural credit and off-farm diversification to tackle the disaster risk,and individual,bivariate and multinomial probit were employed.The results express strong relationship among the adoption decision of two risk coping instruments(78%)and conclude that adopting one risk coping instrument might encourage farmers to simultaneously adopt the other instrument.Furthermore,the demographic attributes,damages caused by natural disasters.Thus,risk perceptions and risk attitude of fanners significantly help in shaping farmers adoption decisions of risk coping instruments.Factors influencing the adoption of multiple risks were examined using different methods;individual,multivariate and multinomial probit regression models that assess the relationship between the adoption of three risk management adoption decisions simultaneously.Empirical findings indicate that crop diversification,off-farm work,and livestock holding are correlated.Furthermore,most of the factors that significantly affect the adoption of the risk management instruments were age,education,farming experience,access to credit,perceptions of risk regarding drought,flood and excessive rainfall.Findings indicate that the marginal effect coefficient of education 1%increase in education would increase the probability of adopting all three risk management instruments by 1%.Likewise,the marginal effect of farming experience reveals a negative but significant relation;this indicates that 1%increase in farming experience would decrease the adoption probability by 3%while other factors remain constant.In view of the findings of this study,it is recommended that the farmers must have awareness about possible risk sources,so that they can manage their production by applying appropriate strategies.Beside that government should formulate related agricultural policies and develop institutional mechanism like credit supply with easy process,and provide off-farm employment opportunities to the farming communities for getting more income and better investment in agriculture sector.Further,education should be focused on priority basis in the study area to make them aware with risks and possible risk management strategies in advance.However,more studies are required on the issue for in-depth understanding and bringing sustainable rural development in Sindh province of Pakistan.This may support the rural development of the Sindh province of Pakistan,and also in other developing countries. |
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