Research Of Grain Supply Response In China

Since reform and opening up,economic has grown rapidly and grain production capacity has enhanced constantly in China.Especially since 2004,the government of China has been comprehensively supporting the development of agriculture,grain output has continuely increased for 12 years.China's grain has been transformed from demand exceeding supply to a new stage,grain supply exceeding demand on structural and periodical.In 2016,agricultural supply-side structural reform marked the initiation of new agricultural policy transition period.China's agricultural policy changed from the increasing production orientation(which focuses on output growth)to the quality-efficiency orientation(which pursues quality,efficiency and environment improvement).However,the uncertainty of farmers' decision-making behavior,natural factors and other factors reveal that the risk of grain supply still exists.Food security cannot be taken lightly in the process of agricultural structure adjustment.This study analyzes the situation of China's grain supply,grain development stages,production fluctuation characteristics and change of production area and structure in China since the reform and opening-up.Based on profit function static supply response model and Nerlove dynamic supply response model,this study reveals the influence of various factors on the grains supply from two aspects of static and dynamic.Synchronously,discusses forming methods of expectation grain prices and decision-making behavior of peasants,explores the difference of profit and price in impacting on grain supply,and measures the influence of agricultural policy changes on these factors as well as the supply of agricultural products.Based on the analysis of the grain supply situation,this study finds that the agricultural policies adjustment has a great impact on grain supply.The comprehensive transformation of agricultural policy promotes the growth of grain production.The time-varying changing of grain supply structure and main grain producing areas causes the formation of the new grain production advantage zone in 2004.For further comprehending the grain supply determing factors,this study establishes profit function static supply response model,finds that grain prices,other grain prices and production factors prices have great influence on grain supply.In order to ensure the stable supply of grain,we should establish a stable grain market management mechanism,strengthen the monitoring of the price of grain and production factors.In the study of grain dynamic supply response,area and yield of grain response to the naive expectation price is larger than the adaptability expectation price and rational expectation price in the same condition.It can be concluded that the naive expectation more generally reflects the farmers' production decision behavior in our country.At the same time,the expected profit elasticity coefficient is generally larger than expected price in rice and wheat dynamic supply response models.But soybean output responses to expected price is larger that expected profit.Irrigation and technological progress affect the yield positively and natural risk negatively for all grain.After 2004,the influence of expected profit and natural risk is weaken.It indicates that our country's agriculture protection has enhanced the ability of agricultural production to resist disasters.Therefore,adjusting farmers' expected profit and controlling grain relative price is effective means of realizing agricultural supply-side structural reform.And by means of rural infrastructure improvement,agricultural science and technology innovation,and disaster prevention facilities construction,the government could protect farmers' profit in agriculture structural adjustment.Agricultural policy promotes grain production and distorts grain market at the same time.Price supporting policy drives grain price sustainable growth,and causes grain difference in price of domestic and overseas continuously extend,and grain import quantum and stock increase at the same time.In order to realize agricultural supply side reform,price support policy adjustment is imperative.By the means of simulating adjustment of minimum purchase price,we find reduce the minimum purchase price in a narrow range has little impact on the market,but it will stimulate maize production increasing and grain importing when the adjustment range is large,which is not conducive to the adjustment of agricultural structure.Therefore,we should keep food security in mind,grasp the adjustment scale well in the adjustment of agricultural structure,and build grain safety guarantee system.At the same time,the government should optimize the agricultural subsidy policy rationally,improve the mechanism for adjusting the interests of grain production,promote the adjustment of the agricultural supply structure,and ensure a stable supply of grain.