Study On The Supply Response Model Of Chinese Winter Rapeseed And Its Empirical Analysis

Rape is the most widely planted oil crops in China,thus its stable supply is the“basic stabilizer” to ensure edible oil supply security in our country.In June 2015,the Ministry of Agriculture canceled the temporary storage policy for rape,causing a sharp fall on the price of rapeseed,which severely hit farmers’ planting enthusiasm,resulting in a significant decline in acreage of rape.In this current grim situation,building a rapeseed acreage supply response model of China,studying the acreage-price elasticity and influencing factors have a realistic significance.It could provide thoughts and references for the government to stabilize the rapeseed supply and guide the rapeseed industry to go through this period of transition.Due to the difference of various types of rape on their growth period,harvest period,competitive crops,cost-benefit,etc,we chose the winter rape,whose planting acreage accounted for more than 90%,as the research object of this paper.In this paper,based on the dynamic panel data of national fixed farmer households in winter rape production provinces,starting from 2013 to 2016,we applied the Nerlove supply response model and the differential GMM estimation method to estimate the recent 4 years acreage-price elasticity of 14 winter rape planting provinces in China.In addition,we estimated the effect of the temporary storage policy on rapeseed acreage by using the stepwise regression method.Firstly,estimation results show that the long term acreage-price elasticity of winter rapeseed is greater than its short term value,indicating that farmers have a certain lag in the adjustment of rapeseed production scale.Secondly,the planting cost has a negative impact on the acreage supply of winter rapeseed in China but the improvement of mechanization has the opposite effect.Thirdly,in the current situation that rapeseed net profit is below zero,the insensitiveness to net profit of families whose non-farm income takes a high percentage weakens the negative effects of the non-farm activities on rapeseed acreage supply.Fourthly,promoting effects of the temporary storage policy onrapeseed acreage is powered by its directly increasing function on rapeseed price.The policy itself didn’t work well on setting the price signal and guiding farmers’ price expectations.From the above,we can conclude the following policy inspirations: Building famous domestic rapeseed oil brands and promoting the deep processing of rapeseed oil to drive up the rapeseed price;vigorously developing the rape planting cooperatives and advanced moderate scale management to reduce the cost of planting;promoting the structural reform of the supply front of the rapeseed industry,which include developing additional value like producing honey,eating it as a vegetable,and develop rape flower tourism to improve the planting benefits;integrating farm machinery resources and improve the coefficient of machine utilization to promote the mechanization process in the rape industry.