| The world economy has been in a profound adjustment and transformation development stage since the financial crisis in 2008.In this stage,the foams and risks accumulated during the earlier stage of the financial crisis have been gradually digested,leading to conversion and continuity between the old and the new powers stimulating economic growth.The world economy is still in a weak resuscitation period on the whole.In addition,uncertain factors such as continuous diversified international trade patterns,unrest financial market,intense geopolitical situations and threats from terrorism give rise to influences on confidence of consumers and investors,leading to restraints on international economic and trade contacts as well as continuous low growth trend in world economy.It leads to unfavorable export trade trend for China,which is known as the “external trouble”.At the same time,China's economy is facing with severe challenges such as unsustainable extensive investment growth pattern,increasingly grown environment and resource restrictions and more intensive structural adjustment pressure.In recent years,the microscopic parameters of various economic indicators in our country keep a decline due to joint actions of fatigued and weak overseas market demand,insufficient domestic demand and distorted in-depth structure,leading to increasingly intensive overall economic decline,which is known as the “internal trouble”.In the context of “internal and external troubles”,it is needed to conduct reasonable coordination and transition on economic driving force,so as to solve current difficulties in economic decline in our city.The stability of economic growth by promoting consumption is the core for the growth pattern of the consumptiondriving economy.Therefore,the research on behaviors of gaming between the central bank and the market,i.e.,consumption credit policy,attracts wide attentions.At present,China is in the “three-stage overlaying” stage of the shifting stage of economic acceleration,the temporary-pain stage of structural adjustment and the policy digestion stage of earlier stage stimulations.Do consumption credit policies facilitate the consumption-driving economic development mode? On account of this question,this research aims to explore the function mechanism and the evaluation on validity of consumption credit policy transmission mechanism.In the construction system of the consumption-driving economic development mode,consumption credit policies are part of the household consumption system,with the operation origin of force for guiding financial institutions to give credit support for consuming behaviors of residents,so as to realize the final target of the policies.In this article,the consumption credit policies are dependent from monetary policies,and the transmission process is reconstructed as a set of complete functional system.The acting path is divided into the space subject transmission mode and the time variable transmission mode.On this basis,the following problems are proposed in this article: on the aspect of the space subject transmission mode,the consumption credit policies involve in economic subjects of central banks,financial institutions and resident families.Is there any obstacle among the three layers of economic subjects during policy implementation stage,which leads to failure of expected policy effect by the promoted consumption credit policies? What is the specific stage of the obstacle if there is actually one? Whether financial institutions play a favorable role of intermediation during the two stages of the transmission process? On the aspect of time variable transmission mode,can consumption credit policies drive economic grown by stimulating consumption? In addition,with times changing,under the “new normalcy” background of China's economy,the expansion on economic growth on “amount” has shown a descending trend,and it is needed to pay more attention to quality promotion,efficiency increase,transformation and upgrading of economic growth,i.e.,the promotion on “quality”.How to evaluate the “quality” of economic growth? Do consumption credit policies act on the “quality” of economic growth? If consumption credit policies actually act,what is the difference between policy time lag and influencing effect on “quality” of different dimensionalities?(1)This article mainly aims to explore the function mechanism for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies as well as evaluate the validity of the transmission mechanism,including the following parts:1 Set the theoretical analytical framework of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.It aims to establish the theoretical analytical framework for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies based on theory references and literature review,so as to guide for the follow-up research of demonstration.By defining the concepts of consumption credit policies,policy transmission mechanism and economic growth quality,it distinguishes the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies from the transmission mechanism of monetary policies,to conduct research and discussion by concluding them to an integral system.It further decomposes the system framework for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,to distinguish the dynamic effecting relationship between the space subject transmission mode and the time variable transmission mode from the transmission modes of two dimensionalities of space transmission path and time transmission path.Based on the above research,it summarizes the structural features for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,involving in complicated relationships among economic subjects as well as specific embodiments of influences caused by changes of economic variables in the transmission network.Then it lays a solid theoretical foundation for further research by integrating with related concepts,system framework and transmission mode of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,so as to derive the mathematical model of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.2 Construct the validity evaluation index system for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.It aims to depict,quantize and measure evaluation standards of different acting modes based on theoretical analysis on the system framework and the acting mode of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.It retrospects the historical changes and tracks of consumption credit policy development by taking policy arrangement as the principal line.In addition,it conducts screening,depicting and quantization on validity evaluation indexes aiming at space subject transmission and time variable transmission for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies by combining with the complexity(internal relevance and hierarchical structure)and dynamics(development trend)of the system framework for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,aiming at two modes of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,i.e.,the space subject transmission and the time variable transmission.During the index quantification process,it evaluates the indexes with comprehensive measurements by “combining” single indexes,so as to lay an analytical foundation for the demonstration part in this article.3 Conduct empirical test on the validity of the two acting modes of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.It aims to measure the transmission validity and the acting degree under the two transmission modes by utilizing microscopic data and constructed evaluation index system.Firstly,as for the space subject transmission mode,the validity test with emphasis of the transmission process of consumption credit policies divides the transmission process of the central bank to consumption behaviors of residents into two main stages: the stage of the central bank to various financial institutions and the stage of various financial institutions to residents.Checks on influencing relationships and effects are conducted on the two stages,respectively.The following two points are noticed in related research: Firstly,valid transmission during the two stages is the premise for the subsequent research;therefore,it is needed to recognize the stage of possible effect weakening in consumption credit policies.Next,various financial institutions play roles of connecting in the transmission process of the two stages;therefore,it is needed to check if it has favorable intermediate capacities.Secondly,as for the time variable transmission mode,the check on validity of the transmission results of consumption credit policies is noticed.This part of research pays more attention to the effects of substantial economy by changes on credit terms driven by consumption credit policies.In combination of the concept of economic growth quality,it aims to analyze the transmission effect for the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies on economic growth quality.Economic growth quality can be divided into different dimensionalities such as stable economy,safe economy and optimized structure.It lays emphasis on exploring different acting efficiencies and transmission speeds of consumption credit policies on economic growth.4 Propose the main idea and countermeasure suggestions to perfect the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.It aims to provide references and consultations to promote the transmission validity of consumption credit policies.It evaluates and analyzes the demonstrative conclusions according to empirical checks on the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies,so as to explore possible hindering factors under different modes in the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.Starting from two transmission modes,it promotes the perfection of transmission mechanism validity of consumption credit policies on realistic level by observing the transmission mechanism,so as to propose conceptions on specific policy operation ideas aiming at the five components of the system framework in the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies.(2)The research in this article is developed according to the logical idea of “proposal of scientific problem – theoretical analysis and derivation – empirical analysis and test”,and a series of theories such as standing revenue hypothesis,liquidity constraint hypothesis,financial restraint hypothesis and credit rationing theory are utilized to separate the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies from the transmission channel of monetary policies,and reconstruct it as a complete and integral analysis framework,so as to explore the influencing mechanism and acting mode among various components of the transmission system of consumption credit policies.By applying various research methods such as panel regression,intermediate effect check and FAVAR model test comprehensively,it demonstrates the validity of consumption credit policies and evaluates it by the space subject transmission mode of consumption credit policies and various channels of time variable transmission mode.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the research conclusions indicate that:1 The transmission mode of consumption credit policies is divided into two dimensionalities,i.e.,space transmission path and time transmission path,which are interacted and interlaced mutually,with differences on research angles and emphasis.The space subject transmission mode is also known as the “reason” for the time variable transmission mode,and the time variable transmission mode is known as the “result” of the space subject transmission mode.The acting path of the space subject transmission mode is described as follows: The central bank determines the regulating and control target as well as the final target of consumption credit policies and utilizes corresponding policies tools and the signal of consumption credit policies transmitted to various financial institutions,which is the first stage of the space subject transmission mode.In the second stage,various financial institutions adjust credit investment behaviors and scales according to the signal of consumption credit policies,which further acts on residents,and residents accept the signal and adjust their own consumption behaviors.In this way,it realizes the regulating and control target as well as the final target of consumption credit policies.The acting path for the time variable transmission mode of the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies can be expressed as follows: The central bank operates the credit policy tools to mainly affect economic variables of basic currency amount and benchmark interest rate.The changes on basic currency amount lead to direct changes on monetary aggregates under the effect of money multiplier.At the same time,on one hand,the changes on benchmark interest rate affect the changes on money supply with changes on loans and deposits of financial institutions;on the other hand,they lead to the changes on the whole interest rate system.Such changes will give rise to changes on household consumption standard as well as changes on total output.2 Based on the results of measurement on the economic growth quality evaluation index system with the entropy evaluation method,the economic stability index,structural improvement index,innovation driving index,resource and environment index and livelihood improvement index in China had a rising trend in periodic fluctuation during the first quarter of 2007 – the fourth quarter of 2017,in which the innovation driving index showed a decline during 2013-2015 and the resource and environment index had a larger fluctuation range during 2008-2014.In addition,economic safety index and industrial upgrading index had a steady rise and quality effectiveness index showed a decline,which was involved in the ratios of social labor productivity,agricultural land output rate,total asset contribution rate of enterprises,comprehensive industrial rate of capacity utilization,gross domestic product tax bearing rate,GDP and fixed investment.According to the research conclusion,the above 6 basic indexes show certain stop and decline.3 The economic development and financial development in China have prominent regional features.Viewing from the development conditions of the four major economic regions,eastern and central regions have better development while northeastern and western regions have relatively lagged development.According to the economic growth theory,improvement on economic development standard will increase the financial resource domination efficiency,and the expansion of substantial economy will inevitably lead to development of the financial industry.On this basis,there are inevitable differences on space transmission smoothness of consumption credit policies under regional differences on economic development standard,and the transmission mechanism of consumption credit policies in efficient financial development regions shall be smoother theoretically.The paper inspects the efficiency of the two stages of the space subject transmission mode in consumption credit policies according to panel data models.According to the measurement model regression results,during the space transmission process of the first stage,there are smooth transmission path in the whole country,eastern regions,central regions and western regions,and there are obstacles in northeastern regions.During the space transmission process of the second stage,the transmission paths of both the whole country and the four major economic regions are smooth.4 The acting path of the space subject transmission mode of consumption credit policies is the regulating and control target as well as the final target for the central bank to determine the consumption credit policies.In addition,corresponding policy tools are utilized according to the regulating and control target as well as the final target,to deliver the signal of consumption credit policies to various financial institutions.According to the signal of consumption credit policies,various financial institutions adjust credit investment behaviors and scales,and residents accept the signal and adjust their own consumption behaviors,so as to realie the regulating and control target as well as the final target of consumption credit policies.Therefore,the macroscopic regulating and control behaviors of the central bank are influencing factors for implementation of financial institutions,and the implementation of financial institutions is the influencing factor of residents' family behavior reactions.At the same time,the implementation of financial institutions is the intermediate influencing factor linking between the macroscopic regulating and control of the central bank and the residents' family behavior reactions.According to intermediate effect check results,the credit investment behaviors of various financial institutions have significant intermediate effect,indicating the linking effect of the credit investment behaviors of financial institutions in space transmission of consumption credit policies.In which the credit investment of various financial institutions in northwestern regions has the only intermediate effect and the other three economic regions have complementary intermediate effect.According to the check results of the intermediate effect measurement indexes,the financial institutions in northwestern regions and central regions have stronger intermediate capacity;the financial institutions in northern regions are inferior to that of the general standard in the whole country;the financial institutions in western regions have unfavorable intermediate capacities.5 The FAVAR model is adopted to calculate the correlation between the consumption credit policies and the indexes of economic growth quality.According to the model contribution degree and the goodness of fit of the estimated effect of the model,consumption credit intensity gives rise to relatively high influences on economic growth quality.According to the coefficient of determination of the model,the goodness of fit is not bad,proving the existence of the path to affect the economic growth quality with consumption credit policies.Viewing from the acting efficiency of the time variable transmission mode of consumption credit policies,the influences are generated since the early period,indicating that economic growth quality has relatively high sensitivity to the transmission of consumption credit policies.Consumption credit policies promote economic stability quality,economic security quality,industrial upgrading quality,resource and environment quality as well as residents' improvement quality during the early stage,which restrain structural improvement quality,quality benefit quality and innovation driving quality.Generally speaking,consumption credit policies promote economic stability quality,economic security quality,structural improvement quality,industrial upgrading quality,resource and environment quality as well as residents' improvement quality,which restrain quality benefit quality and innovation driving quality.Viewing from the speed of time variable transmission mode of consumption credit policies,main dynamic changes can be finished within 1 year.In addition,economic security quality,structural improvement quality,industrial upgrading quality and livelihood improvement quality have a relatively long transmission reaction period in consumption credit policies,and corresponding responses are existing within 2 years.According to the conclusions,the reaction period of influences of consumption credit policies on economic growth quality is relatively long,with almost no lagged transmission. |
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