Research On The Effect Of Real Estate Investment On The Quality Of Economic Growth

Since the reform and opening up,with the continuous deepening of China's urban housing system reform,real estate investment expansion has promoted the process of urbanization.At the same time,the real estate industry has gradually developed into an important pillar industry and a people's livelihood industry that promotes China's national economic growth and improves residents' living conditions.However,after the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008,the real problems behind the rapid development of China's real estate market have become increasingly prominent.The main manifestations are: the economy is heavily dependent on real estate,real estate investment is overheating,housing prices are high,the real estate market is overfinancialized,real estate market supply and demand mismatch and other issues.It can be said that these problems have gradually affected the healthy development of China's real estate market,the social harmony and stability,and the sustainable economic growth.Against this background,the Communist Party of China and government put forward the core positioning of "houses are for living in and not for speculative investment",released a clear signal of "not using real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term" and made a major judgment that "our economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage".Emphasizing "adhering to the concept of new development" as one of the basic strategies for upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era.Therefore,the study on the impact of real estate investment on the quality of China's economic growth under the new development concept is helpful to explore and summarize the model of the coordinated development of real estate investment and high-quality economy,which has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting high-quality transformation and development of real estate industry and promoting high-quality economic development.On the basis of combing the theories and literature related to real estate investment and the quality of economic growth,this paper summarizes and analyzes the development process of real estate investment in China,investigates the relationship between real estate investment and macroeconomic development,and analyzes the spatio-temporal difference characteristics of real estate investment in China from the perspective of growth trend and theil index.Guided by the new development concept,the connotation of the quality of economic growth was defined,and a comprehensive evaluation system of economic growth quality including the five dimensions of "innovation,coordination,green,openness,and sharing" was constructed.The quality of economic growth in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)of China from 2008 to 2017 was measured by using the fixed base range entropy weight method.From the multiple dimensions of time,space,and indicators,the method of variation coefficient,GIS spatial analysis and other methods are used to vividly describe and analyze the differences in the quality level of China's economic growth.Finally,this paper analyzes the impact of real estate investment on the quality of China's economic growth from a theoretical level,and constructs a dynamic panel data model to empirically study the effect of real estate investment on the quality of economic growth from the national level and the four regions of eastern,central,western,and northeast.The study found:(1)The scale of China's real estate investment has been increasing year by year,from 361.423 billion yuan in 1998 to 12026.351 billion yuan in 2018,with an average annual growth rate of 19.22%.The impact of real estate investment on economic growth is significant,and the proportion of real estate investment is positively correlated with GDP growth in the short term.(2)Regional differences in China's real estate investment are obvious.Real estate investment is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal provinces,showing the regional characteristics of high in the east and low in the west.The Theil Index shows that the overall differences and intra-regional differences in real estate investment in China have shown a downward trend.Intraregional differences are the main contributors to overall differences.(3)The measurement results of the quality level of economic growth indicate that the average annual quality level of economic growth in the country over the past 10 years is 0.3364,with an average annual growth rate of 9.65%.The quality level of economic growth in the four major regions is increasing year by year.The inter-provincial differences in the level of quality of economic growth are obvious.As a whole,they show the spatial characteristics of " east > west > northeast > central ",but the gap is narrowing year by year.The average annual growth rate of the quality level of economic growth presents the distribution characteristics of " central > west > northeast > east ",indicating that the quality level of economic growth in central,western,and northeastern regions has a certain "catching-up effect" on east regions.(4)From 2008 to 2017,China's innovation,coordination and sharing dimension index showed an increasing trend as a whole,but there are some differences in spatial distribution characteristics,which are as follows: the distribution characteristics of the innovative dimension index "high in the east and low in the west",the coordination and sharing dimension index "high in the east and low in the middle and northeast";On the whole,the green dimension index showed a downward trend and the characteristics of "low in the east and high in the west".The open dimension index shows that "border provinces are larger than interior provinces,leading in the east and decreasing year by year".(5)Regional differences in the quality level of China's economic growth are obvious.From a national perspective,the differences in the quality level of economic growth are increasing year by year.The differences in the eastern region are the important reasons for the significant differences in the quality of national economic growth.The changes in the differences in the quality of economic growth in the central,western,and northeastern regions are basically the same,showing a U-shaped trend of "convergence first and then expansion".(6)The results of empirical research show that,from a national perspective,real estate investment in 2008-2017 will have a significant impact on the quality of China 's economic growth.There is an inverted “U” relationship between real estate investment and the quality of economic growth.There is a negative effect on the quality of economic growth.(7)The impact of real estate investment on the quality of economic growth has obvious regional heterogeneity.The specific performance is: the real estate investment in the eastern region has a significant promotion effect on the quality of economic growth,while the real estate investment in central,western and northeastern regions has a significant reverse inhibition effect on the quality of economic growth,and the influence degree is shown as "central > northeast > west".(8)Government behavior,human capital level,consumption level and openness level are important factors to improve the quality of China's economic growth,and the level of aging has a significant counter-inhibiting effect on the quality of economic growth.Based on the above research conclusions,this article adheres to the "houses are for living in and not for speculative investment" positioning,implements market regulation policies based on urban conditions,vigorously develops the housing rental market,speeds up the construction of a comprehensive housing security system,optimizes the investment structure according to local conditions,and changes concepts to improve the quality of economic growth,give play to the government's guiding role,promote consumption to prevent aging and improve economic quality,unswervingly implement the new development concept,focus on promoting high-quality economic development,and put forward policy recommendations.