Performance Evaluation Of Crop Insurance Based On Risk Control

Agricultural insurance is an important measure to disperse and transfer agricultural risks.It is of great significance to promote the development of agricultural reform and maintain the stability of rural society.In 2007,the premium subsidy policy enabled China's agricultural insurance to develop by leaps and bounds.But at the same time,there are still many contradictions and difficulties,which need to be improved in accordance with the new situation of agriculture.Performance evaluation is not only the conclusion of the existing agricultural insurance policy,but also the starting point of the agricultural insurance policy in the new period.Therefore,this paper takes crop insurance as an example to study the performance evaluation of agricultural insurance,in order to provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for the transformation of agricultural insurance from "being extensive" to"being accurate" and more effectively play the role of risk management and control.The full text consists of three main parts:First of all,on the basis of analyzing the related concepts of performance evaluation and combing the related research of agricultural insurance performance evaluation at home and abroad,and in accordance to the analysis of the current situation and mechanism of the development of crop insurance in China,this paper unifies the three perspectives of efficacy,effect and efficiency and the three dimensions of the government,farmers and insurance institutions into the same study.In the system,different from the single angle and single object performance evaluation method in the existing literature,a three-angle and three-dimensional performance evaluation framework based on risk management and control is constructed.The performance evaluation is carried out by measuring the difference between the actual value(effect)of crop insurance and the demand value(effect)of the three participants.On the basis of studying the factors that affect the performance level,we design a path to improve the performance of crop insurance.Secondly,this paper comprehensively uses management and economic theory methods such as Simulation,Operational Research Optimization,Econometric and Statistical methods to evaluate the performance of China's crop insurance from three main dimensions,and makes an empirical study on the main factors affecting the level of performance.The performance evaluation of government dimension aims at the level of risk management and control of planting industry,chooses the level of insurance guarantee of planting industry as the evaluation index,improves and calculates the theoretical value of insurance guarantee level of planting industry by using the method of information diffusion with non-uniform distribution points,and compares the minimum risk guarantee amount and species required by planting industry in each province.The results show that the overall performance level of crop insurance in the government dimension is 48%.There is a great difference among different provinces.The coefficient of variation is 0.58,and the maximum is 12.5 times of the minimum.Then the panel quantile model is used to analyze the factors affecting the actual insurance level.The results show that the using efficiency of premium subsidy funds is the most important factor affecting the level of government performance.The promotion of premium subsidy funds to the level of security presents an inverted U-shaped,which means the higher the level of security,the lower of the promotion ability of premium subsidy funds.And there is also a great different leverage efficiency of the premium subsidy funds in different regions.The performance evaluation of farmer dimension takes the risk control level of farmer's income loss as the goal,chooses the disaster loss compensation ratio as the evaluation index,and measures the performance level by calculating the actual compensation amount of farmers' insurance as the proportion of farmer's disaster loss.The result shows that the overall performance level of farmer's dimension farmers' insurance is 69.35%in China.And the proportion of insurance coverage is an important factor affecting the performance of rural households.Based on the results of farmer survey and the division of the influence stages of crop insurance on farmers,this paper uses the concept of exclusion degree of crop insurance to analyze the influencing factors of crop insurance coverage ratio by panel Tobit model.It is found that the per capita farming income level,education level and local insurance development level of farmers has a significant effect on reducing the exclusion degree of crop insurance and improving the proportion of insurance coverage.The performance evaluation of insurance institution dimension takes the insurance institution's compensation risk as the goal,chooses the comprehensive indemnity risk index as the evaluation index,compares the mean value,coefficient of variation and catastrophe indemnity index of simple indemnity between agricultural insurance and non-agricultural property insurance,and evaluates the insurance institution's indemnity of planting industry.The result shows that the performance level of crop insurance in China is 81%,which means the compensation risk of agricultural insurance is 1.23 times that of non-agricultural property insurance,and the compensation risk of agricultural insurance in each province is higher than that of non-agricultural property insurance.Then the panel threshold model is used to study the effect of the number of insured on the average of the compensation rate of crop insurance.The results show that the effect of the number of insured on the compensation rate has a threshold effect.The influence of spatial correlation of crop disaster on the fluctuation of crop insurance indemnity is analyzed by mathematical ways and Monte Carlo Simulation.The results show that spatial correlation can significantly increase the indemnity risk of crop insurance.Finally,the performance evaluation results of the government,farmers and insurance institutions are synthesized by entropy weight TOPSIS method.The results show that the comprehensive performance level of China's crop insurance is low,at 56%.And there are obvious provincial differences.The scale and efficiency of premium subsidy funds,the basic characteristics of farmers,the particularity of planting risks,especially the spatial correlation,are the key factors affecting the performance of crop insurance.On the basis of performance evaluation and considering the development situation of China's planting industry,we designs the path to improve the performance of crop insurance from three aspects:the optimization of premium subsidy scheme,the optimization of insurance institutions' underwriting scheme and the optimization of the estimation method of planting disaster loss.The results show that after the optimization of the premium subsidy method,the performance of the provincial government-dimensional crop insurance has increased by 25.00%,and the peasant household dimension has increased by 5.80%.The optimization of insurance institution's insurance scheme can effectively reduce the risk of compensation:the overall performance level of the whole country has been improved by 13.58%.At the same time,the comprehensive performance has been improved by Pareto,the level of the national is increased by 17.86%.By analyzing the characteristics of crop production and disaster losses in China,a non-parametric local linear weighting method is designed to estimate crop disaster losses.The numerical simulation results show that the method can effectively improve the estimation accuracy,help to achieve "accurate" risk management and control,and provide a method basis for improving crop insurance performance.Compared with the existing research,the innovation of this paper mainly includes:(1)Measuring the performance level of the three participants in crop insurance from the perspective of risk management and control,and making empirical analysis on the influencing factors,enriching the research perspective of performance evaluation of agricultural insurance.(2)By improving or designing relevant methods,the accuracy of performance evaluation is improved.For example,the non-uniform distribution information diffusion model is selected to calculate statistical indicators of crop insurance in the case of small samples,the regional correlation coefficient is used to analyze the impact of spatial correlation on crop risk and insurance,and a non-parametric weighted local linear method is designed to estimate crop disaster losses more accurately.(3)Based on the performance evaluation,a new path to improve the performance of crop insurance was designed,and the effect of performance improvement was simulated to provide a basis for policy improvement.