Study On The Spatial Distribution Of Urban Real Estate Development Investment In China

Real estate development investment is an important part of fixed asset investment.Since the monetization reform of in-kind housing distribution was launched in 1998,the real estate development investment in China has maintained an average annual growth rate of nearly 23%,far exceeding the growth level of about 19%of urban fixed asset invest-ment in the same period.In the context of high-speed growth,the spatial distribution of real estate development investment shows significant spatial difference.By 2016,the pro-portions of urban real estate development investment in eastern,central and western China were 56.86%,23.52%and 19.62%respectively.From 2002 to 2016,the real estate in-vestment in 15 sub-provincial cities and 4 municipalities accounted for 79.2%of the annu-al average total investment in real estate development of 35 large and medium-sized cities and 43.4%of the annual average total national investment.The real estate development investment in China is mainly concentrated in the economically developed eastern areas at the spatial level and in a few economically developed large and medium-sized cities at the city level with quite high spatial aggregation degree.While the spatial distribution of real estate development investment is unconventional,the supply and demand of the real estate market in different cities face two completely dif-ferent situations:The demand exceeds supply in the real estate market of big cities(mainly first-tier cities and a few core second-tier cities),and the government has continuously in-troduced strict adjustment measures to control demand and curb the rapid rise of the real estate price;the governments of most small and medium-sized third-and fourth-tier cities have started the housing supply-side reform,introduced easing policies to stimulate de-mand,and resolved the high real estate inventory by means of resettlement with monetiza-tion in shanty towns rebuilding.This shows that there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the spatial distribution of real estate development investment in the process of Chinese rapid urbanization.This spatial mismatch between market supply and demand not only affects the healthy development of China’s real estate industry,but also prejudices the stability and sustainable development of the entire national economy.It is of great theoret-ical and practical significance to study the evolution process and current characteristics of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment,clarify the problems and influences of the spatial distribution of real estate development investment,analyze the influence factors and mechanisms for the changes in the spatial distribution of real estate development investment,as well as explore the countermeasures for optimizing the spatial distribution of real estate development investment and the construction of a long-term de-velopment mechanism for the real estate industry based on China’s reality.In this paper,the issues related to the spatial distribution of urban real estate devel-opment investment in China are systematically studied by combining induction with de-duction,specifications with facts,and comparative study in accordance with the basic logic of putting forward problems-analyzing problems-solving problems.In addition to the introduction and conclusion,the main contents of this paper are as follows:Ⅰ.The defini-tion of core concepts and theoretical basis.The real estate market supply and demand the-ory,urbanization theory,urban size determination and distribution theory,and economic locational theory are mainly expounded on the basis of defining the core concepts.Ⅱ.Evolution and characteristics of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China.On the basis of investigating the change process of the spatial distri-bution of real estate development investment,the global Moran’s I index and local Moran’s I index are used to measure the spatial distribution of urban real estate development in-vestment in China,evaluate the aggregation degree and structure of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China,and reveal the characteristics of the spatial distribution.Ⅲ.Problems and influences of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China.The spatial mismatch between supply and de-mand of real estate caused by the imbalanced spatial distribution of real estate develop-ment investment in China are mainly expounded from four aspects,i.e.different regions,different property types,cities of different sizes and the spatial mismatch between supply and demand of real estate inventory and flow.In addition,its causes and adverse effects on the government,enterprises and residents are analyzed.IV.Influence factors and evolution mechanism of spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China.The six factors influencing the spatial distribution of urban real estate development in-vestment are selectively analyzed,including the population urbanization level,urban eco-nomic development level,urban disposable income per capita,urban space expansion level,urban industrial development level and urban real estate price level.The mechanisms that drive the spatial distribution evolution of urban real estate development investment are discussed from the overall development of the real estate industry,changes in urban size,siphonic effect brought by urban incremental planning,spatial spillover of large cities and differences in urban regulatory policies of different levels.V.Empirical analysis of the factors affecting the changes in spatial distribution of urban real estate development in-vestment.Empirical analysis is made for core factors influencing the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment by establishing the panel data model,so as to compare and analyze the differences of influence factors in Chinese different regions(eastern,central and western regions).VI.Demonstration analysis of the correlation be-tween the urban size change and the spatial distribution of real estate development invest-ment.It is aimed at determining whether there is a correlation between the urban size and the spatial distribution of real estate development investment,and whether there is a dif-ference in the influences of different-size cities on the spatial distribution of real estate de-velopment investment.VII.Basic idea of optimizing the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China.On the basis of expounding the significance of optimizing the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment,the basic ideas and specific measures for optimizing the spatial distribution of real estate develop-ment investment are mainly discussed from the top-level design of the central government,urban coordinated development and market subject behavior norms.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,China’s real estate develop-ment investment shows strong spatial aggregation characteristics in spatial distribution,and the periodic changes of spatial aggregation are consistent with macro-economic fluc-tuation,regulatory policies and other changes.The spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China shows three characteristics,i.e.zonal distribution along economic hot spots,staircase distribution from east to west,and aggregated distribution in core areas.Secondly,there is a mismatch between supply and demand for the spatial dis-tribution of China’s urban real estate development investment in different regions,property types,urban sizes,real estate stock and flow.These problems have many impacts on the central and local governments,the real estate industry and other industries,as well as or-dinary house buyers and investors.Thirdly,the mechanism driving the evolution of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment in China mainly relies on five aspects:driving of the overall development of the real estate industry,driving of the changes in urban size,driving of the siphonic effect brought by urban incremental planning,driving of the spatial spillover of large cities,and driving of the differences in urban regu-latory policies of different levels.Fourthly,the empirical results show the most remarkable four factors that affect the changes in spatial distribution of real estate development in-vestment in China include the population urbanization level,real estate price level,dis-posable income level per capita and economic development level,among which the popu-lation urbanization level is the most influential.The urban space expansion level and in-dustrial development level have no significant influence on the changes in spatial distribu-tion of real estate development investment.The factors affecting the changes in spatial dis-tribution of urban real estate development investment are not identical in different regions.The empirical results show that the factors which have significant influence on the cities in eastern,central and western regions are the population urbanization level and disposable income level per capita,and the factors that have no significant influence on such cities are the urban space expansion level.Fifthly,there is a correlation between the urban size and the spatial distribution of real estate development investment.The urban size has a positive impact on the spatial distribution of real estate development investment in China,and such impact gradually declines with the decrease of the urban size.Based on the above study conclusions,the basic ideas for optimizing the spatial dis-tribution of real estate development investment in China are discussed in this paper from the top-level design of the central government,urban coordinated development and market subject behavior norms.For the top-level design of the central government’s policies,the strategic importance of top-level design should be maintained to weaken the "policy in-strument property" of real estate investment.The citizenization of the agricultural popula-tion should be gradually promoted to provide demand power for optimizing the spatial dis-tribution real estate development investment.The balanced development of urban areas should be facilitated to create favorable conditions for the optimization of spatial distribu-tion.The "supply-side reform" of real estate should be boosted to solve existing difficulties for the optimization of spatial distribution.In terms of the urban coordinated development,the scale of real estate development investment should be controlled according to the urban size.The income level should be continuously improved to enhance the effective demand support of urban residents for real estate.The economic growth mode dominated by real estate investment should be changed to control the excessive investment expansion.A rea-sonable change in the size and structure of the urban population should be promoted ac-cording to local conditions.The construction of urban infrastructure should be accelerated to improve the allocation efficiency of real estate development investment.With regard to the market subject behavior norms,the behaviors of investors should be normalized to weaken the "sheep-flock effect",and the expectation management of house buyers should be strengthened.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:I.Points of view.There are many studies on the demand side of real estate in existing litera-ture,but few studies on the supply side of real estate(real estate development investment),especially lack of relevant studies on the spatial distribution of real estate development in-vestment.The research of this paper is based on the current actual situation in China to discuss the development of China’s real estate industry from the perspective of the spatial distribution of real estate development investment.The points of view are creative.Ⅱ.Re-search methods.The spatial information data,spatial autocorrelation theory&method,global Moran’s I index and local Moran’s I index are used to measure the existence and spatial distribution or aggregation structure of China’s urban real estate development in-vestment and reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of China’s urban real estate de-velopment investment in accordance with the conventional time series data.Ⅲ.Research content.The systematic theoretical analysis and empirical test are made for the influence factors and their mechanisms of the spatial distribution of urban real estate development investment.According to the classification of China’s urban size,the impacts of urban size on the spatial distribution of real estate development investment are discussed from both theoretical and empirical aspects.