An Empirical Study On The Impact Of China's Foreign Trade Development On Industrial Upgrading

Since the reform and opening up,China has more and more participated in the international division of labor,the process of industrialization has been accelerating,China's economic development has attracted worldwide attention,and foreign trade has become an important support to promote national economic and social development.In the process of integrating into the global production network,China's population dividend is gradually decreasing,the pressure of resources and environment is increasing,and the impact of trade frictions is increasing.Many problems make China have to think about industrial transformation,development and upgrading.Under the condition of open economy,how to promote industrial upgrading,foreign trade has a positive impact on exchange of needed products,adjustment of surplus and deficiency,promotion of competition,demonstration learning,and expansion of market.Utilizing domestic and foreign markets to optimize the allocation of resources,foreign trade undoubtedly plays an important role in industrial upgrading.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical value for China to study the impact of the development of foreign trade on industrial upgrading,to think about the development of economic transformation and the construction of a modern economic system,and to continuously improve its economic quality and enhance its international competitive advantage.The paper begins with the definition of concept,theoretical combing and current situation analysis.Then,it uses empirical analysis method to reveal the impact of trade development on industrial upgrading from different perspectives of structural evolution,economic efficiency,product space and division of production one by one,it covers a large amount of data and uses a variety of quantitative analysis methods,such as panel data regression,panel probit regression,panel threshold analysis,product space approximation matrix,Markov chain,etc.,and strives to measure the object of study in a more multi-dimensional way.Then,it analyses the factors that restrict foreign trade to promote industrial upgrading.Finally,it concludes with the following conclusions from different perspectives,and relevant suggestions are put forward.The paper is divided into three parts:The first part is a literature review and framework construction.Covering the contents of the three chapters,the introduction part elaborates the background significance,research methods and ideas of the thesis,and lists the innovation points and shortcomings.The main concepts and literature review section introduce the concepts of industrial upgrading,classifies and defines the concepts of industrial upgrading from the perspectives of structural evolution,economic efficiency,product space and division of production.And it then summarizes the previous research results from different perspectives at home and abroad.In the part of theoretical analysis,trade theory,industrial upgrading theory and other relevant theories are summarized,and then the influence of trade development on industrial upgrading in an open economy is discussed from the aspects of market mechanism,economies of scale,industrial association,knowledge spillover and division of labor.The second part is the empirical test.It covers five chapters.Starting from the analysis of the current situation,it observes and interprets the industrial upgrading from four aspects: inter-industry,intra-industry,inter-product and intra-product.That is,the industrial upgrading Quartet based on the foreign trade: the perspective of structural evolution,the perspective of economic efficiency,the perspective of product space and the perspective of division of production.In the analysis of the current situation,the paper not only analyzed the current situation of China's foreign trade and industrial upgrading,but also analyzed the current situation of industrial upgrading lagging behind the development of foreign trade.From the perspective of structural evolution,the paper analyzes the influence of foreign trade on industrial upgrading in terms of industrial structure coordination degree,industrial structure lightness and softness,industrial overall efficiency and industrial structure transformation degree.From the perspective of economic efficiency,this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade on TFP and labor efficiency of industrial upgrading.From the perspective of product space,this paper examines the impact of trade development on industrial upgrading in terms of comparative advantage and international competition.Based on the world input-output table,this paper analyzes the impact of the intermediate trade on the value-added rate from the perspective of production division.The third part is the stage of factor analysis and summary.It covers the last two chapters.This paper mainly uses normative analysis method,combined with the outstanding solidification characteristics of foreign trade development,the reversal of domestic factor dividends,the containment of China's rise by some developed countries,the incomplete competition pattern of international market and the weak foundation of service industry,which restrict the promotion of industrial upgrading by foreign trade.Then the conclusions are summarized from four different perspectives,and some suggestions are put forward,such as giving full play to the leading effect of trade structure to guide the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,giving play to the trade spillover effect to promote economic efficiency,actively participating in international division of labor to enhance the ability of industrial upgrading,and constantly improving the domestic value chain to enhance the stability of industrial upgrading.The conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows: Since the reform and opening up,the scales of China's economy and trade have expanded rapidly,and the industrial development has changed significantly.From the perspective of structural evolution,the development of foreign trade is beneficial to the coordination of industrial structure and the promotion of industrial comprehensive efficiency,but it has no significant impact on the transformation of industrial structure in statistical sense;except for trade in services,other forms of trade have a negative impact on the soft degree of industrial structure.Human capital and investment in science and technology contribute to the improvement of the soft degree of industrial structure,as well as to the coordination of industrial structure and the improvement of industrial comprehensive efficiency.From the perspective of economic efficiency,the development of export trade is conducive to the promotion of total factor productivity,while import trade has the opposite effect on total factor productivity;the export of industrial products and service trade are conducive to the promotion of labor productivity,but the impact of primary product exports on labor productivity is negative.From the perspective of product space,the existing capacity endowment of trade products is better than that of developed countries in promoting industrial upgrading.Export product density,import product density and economic growth have positive effects on industrial upgrading.From the perspective of production division,in the early stage of China's integration into the global value chain,with the increase of international division of labor participation,the value-added rate is rising,which is conducive to industrial upgrading.Then,with the maturity of participation in the global value chain and international division of labor,the low-end embedding pressure in some areas is greater,and the value-added rate presents an inverted U-shaped trajectory;if considering industrial linkages,increasing the depth of integration of the chain,which will is conducive to industrial upgrading.The innovations of this paper are mainly embodied in the following aspects: first,it builds a clearer framework of research ideas.Under the four different perspectives of structural evolution,economic efficiency,product space and division of labor,this paper studies the impact of foreign trade development on industrial upgrading,and demonstrates the research object at different levels.The establishment of this research framework extends the scope and logic of similar research,and also builds a clear idea.Secondly,in terms of research content,the research on the industrial level involves not only the evolution of inter-industry structure,but also the improvement of intra-industry efficiency.The research on the product level involves not only comparative advantage and international competition,but also the value-added situation of division of production.The Quartet model makes the research more completely.The third is to study the details and data use.For example,when using RCA to make upgrade judgment,not only logical judgment,but also original value is traced;when analyzing WIOT data,both intermediate products and final products are considered.In addition,in terms of data use,from time series data to panel data,from product space data to input-output data,etc.,in order to increase the persuasiveness of the paper,the data types used are more abundant than similar research.