How Parameter Reforms Of Basic Endowment Insurance Affect Economic Growth:Theoretical Model And Chinese Practice

The basic endowment insurance inevitably has a far-reaching impact on economic growth while improving itself through parametric reform including extending legal retirement age,raising contribution rate and lowering pension replacement ratio,and so on.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the impact of the changes of retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance on savings,human capital investment and China's economic growth.On the basis of previous research results,this paper first theoretically explains the general mechanism of the changes in retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance affecting savings,human capital investment and economic growth.Secondly,based on the basic framework of endogenous growth,this paper constructs a threegeneration overlapping model,and explores the transmission mechanism of the changes of retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance affecting savings rate,human capital investment and economic growth by mathematical induction.Finally,through numerical simulation analysis,this paper reveals the impact of changes in retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance on savings rate,human capital investment and China's economic growth.From the perspective of economic growth,this paper evaluates the differences of delaying retirement age,increasing contribution rate and reducing substitution rate,which is conducted to cope with population aging.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)there is a reverse relationship between retirement age and social savings rate,and there is a positive relationship between retirement age and human capital investment.There is a reverse relationship between retirement age and economic growth rate because savings effect of retirement age is stronger than that of human capital investment.With other conditions unchanged,if increase the retirement age by one year,social savings rate will decrease by about 0.2%,the investment in human capital will increase by about 0.1%,and the economic growth rate will decrease by about 0.35%.(2)There is a reverse relationship between contribution rate and social savings rate,and there is a positive relationship between contribution rate and human capital investment.There is a reverse relationship between contribution rate and economic growth rate because savings effect of contribution rate is stronger than that of human capital investment.Under other conditions unchanged,if the contribution rate is reduced by 1%,social savings rate will increase by 0.23%,while human capital investment will decrease by 0.05% and the economic growth rate will increase by 2.37%.If the contribution rate is increased by 1%,social savings rate will decrease by 0.16%,and human capital investment will increase by 0.04%,and the economic growth rate will decrease by 1.95%.(3)There is a reverse relationship between substitution rate and social savings rate,and there is a positive relationship between substitution rate and human capital investment.There is a reverse relationship between substitution rate and economic growth rate because savings effect of substitution rate is stronger than that of human capital investment.If the substitution rate of basic pension is reduced by 1%,social savings rate will increase by 0.21%,the investment of human capital will decrease by 0.05%,and the economic growth rate will increase by 2.26%.If the substitution rate of basic pension is increased by 1%,the social savings rate will decrease by 0.18%,the investment of human capital will increase by 0.04%,and the economic growth rate will decrease by 2.08%.(4)In the short term,reducing the substitution rate of basic endowment insurance is the best policy choice.In the long run,delaying retirement age is the best policy choice.In this paper,we make a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the changes of retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance on savings,human capital investment and China's economic growth.We fully analyse the mechanism,direction and intensity of the changes in retirement age,contribution rate and substitution rate of basic endowment insurance affecting economic growth,which beneficial to the systematicness,synergy and accuracy of the reform of basic endowment insurance system parameters,and to the realization of the incentive compatibility between the reform of basic endowment insurance parameters and economic growth.