| Since the 1990 s,my country’s aging process has accelerated significantly,and the problem of population aging has become increasingly prominent.In 2001,my country reached the standard defined by the United Nations for entering an aging society.At present,the national economic development strategy actively implemented by government departments to deal with the problem of population aging is not only closely related to the well-being of hundreds of millions of people,but also vital to the vigorous development of the socialist national economy,the harmony and stability of the economy and society,and to the comprehensive construction of socialism.The goal of modernizing a powerful country also has far-reaching significance.Resident savings is not only an important means to improve residents’ living standards,but also closely related to social and economic growth.In the context of an aging society,it is of great value to study how the basic old-age insurance system,which is the most important source of life security for the elderly,affects the residents’ savings rate.In order to explore the effect of China’s population aging and endowment insurance on residents’ savings rate,this paper first summarizes the relevant literature of domestic and foreign scholars,and briefly expounds the relevant economic theories.On this basis,it analyzes the mechanism of the two effects on my country’s household savings rate,and puts forward the research hypothesis of this paper.This paper selects the annual panel data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in my country from 2005 to 2020 to carry out empirical research.First,the results of the Hossman test of the static panel are analyzed,and the fixed effect model is selected for subsequent estimation based on the test results.Considering that there may be some inertia in residents’ saving behavior,the system GMM method is used again for dynamic panel estimation.In addition,due to the problem of unbalanced regional economic development in our country,this paper divides the country into three regions: east,middle and west,and makes a comparative analysis using the generalized least squares method.Based on the research conclusions,the current household savings rate is greatly affected by one lag period,showing an obvious positive effect,indicating that this saving behavior has strong inertia,and the current savings level of residents will change due to the previous behavior.;Without adding the basic endowment insurance factor,since the household savings rate will be negatively affected by the dependency ratio of the elderly population,the growth of the elderly population will have a certain degree of restraint on the savings level of residents;without adding population aging In the case of factors,the pension replacement rate will negatively affect the explained variable and have a significant crowding out effect on the household savings rate;when both are considered,the effect of the “burden effect” of population aging on the explained variable is not the same.There was no change,but the magnitude of the impact was significantly diminished.The "income redistribution" function of the basic old-age security system can effectively reduce the negative impact caused by the "burden effect".From the empirical results of the panel data of the three districts,it can be seen that there are obvious regional differences in the degree of influence of the two on the household savings rate.According to the final research results,this paper proposes corresponding policy measures from the perspectives of population aging and endowment insurance:adjusting the birth policy through administrative legislation,implementing a gradual delayed retirement system,accelerating the development of the aging industry,and actively promoting multi-level Construction of the old-age insurance system. |
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