Empirical Study On The Impact In Real Estate Market By Monetary Policy

As the pillar industry of the national economy,the real estate industry plays a critical role in improving the resident housing conditions and raising the contribution rate to the domestic gross value.However,there are many unreasonable problems occurred in the real estate market recent years,such as over high price,excessive real estate inventory in some areas,over rapid real estate investment growth and so on.As we all know,the problems above are not only caused a huge waste of resources,but also brought a lot of social problems.Therefore,it has become the focused topic among scholars that whether the adjustment of monetary policy has an impact on the real estate market or not,as well as the differences impacts among different regions.In view of this,this paper makes the research on the influence of monetary policy in real estate market based on panel data to provide a realistic basis in increasing the effective impact on the real estate market by the monetary policy.Firstly,this paper analyzes the operation status of the real estate market based on the collection and researches of literature about the impacts of the monetary policy.Secondly,this paper constructs the static and dynamic panel model by using the collected provincial panel data from 1999 to 2015 to verify the impacts on residential,office buildings and commercial premises prices by the changes of money supply and real interest rates with the total and regional sample data.And then this paper constructs the vector autoregressive model,and verifies the impacts on residential,office buildings and commercial premises inventory and investment growth by the changes of money supply and real interest rates with the total and regional sample data.Finally,the effective countermeasures and suggestions are proposed about the increasing impact of monetary policy on the real estate market.Countermeasures and suggestions with pertinence and science are proposed from the aspects of improving the real estate financial system,promoting the interest rate market steadily,making furtherance of money supply to provide a helpful reference for promoting the effective impacts on real estate market by monetary policy.The following conclusions are achieved based on the above researches.First is the too rapid growth in prices,inventories and investment of the real estate.There is large regional differences in housing price increasing but the overall is still fast according to the statistical data.The prices of residential,office buildings,commercial premises have been increased by 3.45 times,2.45 times and 2.86 times respectively in the recent 17 years.The inventories of office and commercial buildings are more than residential inventories.Moreover,no matter the investments of residential,office buildings or commercial premises,they are all over growth.The economic development will be out of balance if this is sustained.Second is the obvious adjustment effects and regional differences about the changes of money supply and real interest to the growth rate of most regional housing prices,real estate inventories and real estate investment growth rate.The better effects of monetary policy is achieved in the regions with high housing income,mostly in the inventories of eastern residential buildings,central office building,western commercial housing,as well as the growth rate of investment in western residential buildings,central office buildings and commercial housing.The innovation of this paper includes the following aspects.First,the demonstration analyzes the effectiveness and regional differences of various types of commercial housing by monetary policy.Most of the existing literature is limited to the impacts of residential buildings by monetary policy.But there is little research on office buildings and commercial premises.In view of this,this paper includes residential,the office building and the commercial office into the research objects by constructing static panel,the dynamic panel and the PVAR model to make the research of the impacts of various types of housing by monetary policy through the total and regional sample data,which has broadened the research field.Second,the dynamic panel system GMM model is constructed,which influences the effect of monetary policy on house price.The dynamic panel system GMM model is used to analyze the short panel data of N> T,and some variables are introduced like disposable income of urban residents and urban population.It overcomes the shortcomings of the static model and considers the defects in the lag.Moreover,it omits the estimated deviations caused by the important variables omission,and takes into account the collinearity problems brought by excessive variables to increase the credibility of the empirical results.Third,a panel vector autoregressive PVAR model of the influences is constructed,which is on real estate inventories and investment growth rate by monetary policy.Constructing PVAR model is to research the influence of monetary policy on real estate inventories and investment growth rate.When enhancing the advantages of VAR model,PVAR model has lower requirement on the length of data,and calculates by panel data.Thus it maximizes the estimation errors to improve the credibility of the empirical results.The research results of this paper set up the framework system of the impacts on the real estate market by monetary policy,and expand the research field and research methods of the influences on the real estate market by monetary policy,as well as propose the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy on the real estate market,which have strong theoretical and practical significance.