Effects Of Monetary Policies On Real Estate Market

As an important asset, Housing price volatility is closely linked with the macroeconomic conditions. Despite the later development of China's real estate market, its faster growth makes real estate industry becoming an important force in promoting economic development, even comparable to the developed countries. With the real estate industry becoming more and more important for the overall economy, people care much about how to regulate this industry and keep it stable, and the higher real estate prices, also trigger a series of economic and social problems, which take the government and society attentions.Monetary policy is considered a powerful tool to promote macroeconomic stability, to control the real estate market in practice (Gao, et.al 2009). Both economists and policy makers are very interest in how monetary policy affects the real estate market. In this context, this paper, not only from a theoretical perspective, explore the macro-control mechanism of the real estate market and put forward useful suggestions, but also, based on macro-and micro-level empirical analysis, comprehensively examine how monetary policy affect real estate market. For the problems exposed in the real estate market, analysis of its causes, and using the results of empirical studies, summarizing results learned from the real estate market regulation, and then finding solutions to this problem will not only help us improve the regularity of the real estate market, and enhance the effectiveness of China's real estate market regulation, they also have an important implication for China's real estate industry's healthy and orderly development.The first chapter of this thesis is the introduction, including the ideas, methods, and the contribution of this study, and then the second chapter reviews the literature should and how monetary policy intervenue real estate prices as well as our government's practical experiences. Historical experience shows that macroeconomic policy has significant effects on the real estate industry, but the practice has also shown that the role of monetary policy is limited. The left part of our study thus will explore empirically how macroeconomic policy affects the real estate and how the economies react to this intervention.First, the third chapter, based on a dynamic game model, in an inconsistency problem framework, we explain the causes of the real estate bubble from a very different view. We mainly think about why the government cannot stable the estate industry easily. Its conclusions show that the Government's determination to control prices, the continuity of policies, as well as conflicts between central and local governments all can constraint the monetary policy.On the other hand, in Chapter IV and Chapter V respectively from both the macro and micro perspectives, we study how monetary policy affects the real estate market. Chapter IV focus on study how real estate prices and real estate investment be affected by the monetary policy. Using time-series models, mainly the use of impulse response functions and VAR model, we finally find that in the short term changes in interest rates have no obvious impact on real estate prices, but in the long term, monetary policy can significantly affect housing prices and real estate investment. This time-delay feature of monetary policy, is useful for us to understand the characteristics of the real estate market, and has good implications for further scientific regulatory policy.The final chapter search micro evidences of monetary policy's effect on the real estate market, especifically focus on behavioral changes in residential home loans. Through the empirical analysis we found that interest rate policy implementation have significant impact on consumers in the real estate market. The higher of the gap between short and long term lending rates, consumers tend to choose more short-term loans; otherwise, they tend to choose long-term loans. At the policy level, we think that the Government should focus on the means of interest rate adjustment to control the market price.The results also show that the current down payment ratio is a very effective way to control price. However, from our statistics we found that its implementation is not strong binding, so if the government tried to "ironing" prices it should further urge the local governments and local commercial banks to implement the central policy efforts effectively.The conclusions in this part have many useful suggestions to monetary policy-makers, such that monetary policy cannot solve the problem of excessively high real estate prices in the short run, and appropriately use of the commercial bank credit guidance is important; the monetary policy implementation should have a "forward-looking" to adjust for dynamic consideration.In the past 30 years Industrial theory and empirical research has made great progress (Tirole,1988; Martin,2000). This article draws on the most advanced research tools in this field to study what makes the current status of real estate industry, and how to promote long-term stable development of this industry. This study has significant implications for the domestic industrial economics research, both theoretical and empirical methods.