A Study Of Upgrading Path For China's Manufacturing Industry Based On Global Value Chains Specialization

The theory of international division of labor has undergone the evolution from classical,neoclassical trade theory to new trade theory and the neo-new trade theory.At present,the Global Value Chains(GVCs)specialization based on trade in task provides the appropriate explanation for the new development of global manufacturing industry.Trade in task makes the GVCs become the leading form of the international specialization.In the process of product value creation,the cross penetration among the countries and the sectors phenomenon is becoming more and more frequent.The trend of world manufacturing and co-production is becoming obvious remarkably.China's manufacturing industry has long been obtaining the gains from specialization which are relying on demographic dividends and resource endowments.The total economic substantial growth,while the per capita income and technology level is remains a slow growth which means “low-end lock” risk.Over past years,population aging and environmental pollution problems highlighted,China's manufacturing industry in the “run to the bottom” at a disadvantage,“squzeed effect” risk occurs.“low-end lock” and “squzeed effect” risk appear simultaneously which make China's transformation and upgrading task particularly urgent.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the upgrading path under GVCs to enhance the value-added ability of China's value chain,to reverse the dilemma of low-value-added part of GVCs in China,to promote the increase of per capita income and to ensure the steady growth of national economy.It has important theoritical significance for deepening the theory of industrial international specialization and industrial upgrading theory.Based on the frontier theory of industrial economics and international economics and by referring to the existing theory and methods of added value accounting,this disertation optimizes accounting method of specialization status,analyzes the GVCs upgrading path of China's manufacturing industry to cope with the increasing “squeeze effect”;explores other upgrading path beyond GVCs,trying to removing the “capture”,“low-end lock” by developed economies;explains the selection action of manufacturing upgrade path from the perspective of GVCs and Reginal Value Chains,so as to optimize the upgrading path of manufacturing industry in emerging economies.Firstly,this study generalizes the direction and factors of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in conext of Global Value Chains.Base on the WIOD data,KPWW method and panel regression analysis are applied to find the relationship between GVCs embedding position and specialization status and classify the 14 manufacturing industries according to GVCs dominant sectors.It discusses the impact of upgrading direction on industrial upgrading amplitude by using the timing variations of embedding positions in 40 economies.The relevant factors are investigated for the upgrading of manufacturing industry.Those research findings are as follows: 14 manufacturing industries are divided into three types which are upstream leading industries,downstream leading industries and mixed leading industries;the advanced factors promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry stronger than the traditional factors.The research reveals the difference from GVCs mixed leading industry and “binary drive” model according to the leading stages of 14 industries.Furthermore,the direction and factors of transformation and upgrading are cleared in three types of manufacturing industry.Then,the study compares the prospect of China's manufacturing industrial upgrading with GVCs and RVCs,and discusses the feasibility of RVCs industrial upgrading path.For a long time China is participant in the GVCs.And the implementation of “The Belt and Road”(B & R)initiative puts forward demands to the governance of RVCs.If this initiative is feasible on economy,China will transform from embedding GVCs to self-leading RVCs.based on WIOD data,KPWW method and by using RCA index,RGVCA index and value chain index,the dissertation explores this feasibility from the two angles of the condition and influence of value chain converted.The empirical results show that complementarity is stronger than competition both among the industries and within the industry between China and countries along B & R.China has accounted for the high value-added sections of this value chain recognized as the basic condition to lead the RVCs.Finally,according to the selection experience of manufacturing and upgrading path of China and the rest of the world,the research explains the behavior of upgrading path selection from the perspective of GVCs and RVCs,and optimizes the upgrading path of Chinese manufacturing industry.The success or failure of industrial upgrading will be determined by the match degree between the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry and the competition extent.Based on WIOD data and value-added trade net value method,this disertation presents the performance of China's manufacturing industry in the GVCs,the comparison of upgrading prospects in GVCs path and B & R RVCs and the selection experience of developed economies and emerging economies,test the contents of the hypothesis and show the upgrading path which match the 14 sub-industries.The empirical conclusion shows that the hypothesis is established,highly competitive economies are more inclined to highly competitive GVCs path,the Czech Republic,Mexico and Indonesia are more inclined to the RVCs path;China's manufacturing industry mainly selects GVCs upgrading path.Competition are surpass their own competitiveness which constraints China's industrial upgrading.If the textile footwear industry,electrical and optical equipment manufacturing and other industries with high sepeicialization status to select the GVCs upgrade path,the other sub-sectors to select the B & R RVCs path,the upgrading path of China's manufacturing will be optimized.The above conclusions help to explore the direction and path of Chinese manufacturing upgrading under framework of GVCs specialization.This is of great significance to enhance the value-added ability of China's value chain,to reverse the dilemma of China's long-term low value-added links in GVCs,to promote the increase of per capita income and to ensure the steady growth of the national economy.Once the success of China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading,into the value chain in the high-end links,become a part of international specialization that is difficult to replace will achieve the “participant” to “governance” identity conversion.There is a pratical significance in enhancing the value chain and alleviating the risk of squeeze effect.The main contributions of this study are as follows: apart from the previous studies on the upgrading of manufacturing from the perspective of technological innovation,institutional innovation and strategic management,this research proposes to study the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry from the perspective of GVCs specialization and try to establish a GVCs analysis framework for analyzing industrial upgrading of emerging economies including China.It is also found that there exist mixed dominant industries in GVCs,and that there are high value-added links and core links in addition to the two ends of the value chain.From the matching relationship between international competitiveness and competition extent,the upgrading path from the participation of GVCs to the leading RVCs and selection principle is proposed for China.