| China has become a veritable world factory and the world's largest manufacturing country,but China's manufacturing industry is still facing greater pressures in terms of product quality and industrial technology.There are many factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,including institutional and institutional constraints,industry homogeneity competition,technology research and development capabilities,talent cultivation,and financing constraints.One of the important influencing factors is the rising housing prices.The rising house prices have had a profound impact on the development of the manufacturing industry and the production and operation of manufacturing companies.On the one hand,the rise in real estate prices has driven the rapid development of upstream and downstream industries,which is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the overall efficiency of the manufacturing industry.On the other hand,high housing prices mean high profits in the real estate industry.The profitability of capital has attracted more loans and social investment into the real estate industry,and even some of the manufacturing market entities have switched to the real estate industry.The decline in manufacturing industry investment and the constraints of financing constraints have caused the manufacturing industry to lack investment in production investment and innovation research and development,which is not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing.The rapid development of China's manufacturing industry is based on low domestic labor and huge demographic dividends.In recent years,as the price of real estate has been in a rising stage,the prices of production factors related to manufacturing enterprises and the labor costs of manufacturing enterprises continue to rise.As a result,those manufacturing industries that rely on low-cost survival cannot afford the high cost of high housing prices,they will choose to transfer and move away.Then,what kind of results this transfer and removal will bring to the development of the urban industry may lead to the "hollowing" of the urban industry.Or it can free up more development space for the city's high value-added industrial chain to climb upwards(Since the places with high real estate prices are often big cities,they have excellent talents and perfect infrastructure,which will attract more manufacturing enterprises to gather in big cities,and these enterprises generally produce high value-added products).The level of real estate prices and the level of upgrading of manufacturing in each city or region are different,and there are differences.Then,will the change in real estate prices affect the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry?If there an impact,how much does it affect the effect?In addition,the rise in real estate prices will directly increase the cost of living for labor.However,in the first-tier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangzhou,here is such a phenomenon.Even if the real estate price level is very high,there is still a large inflow and outflow of labor.So what impact will labor mobility have on manufacturing upgrades?To enter a new era,to achieve high-quality development,it is urgent to further promote the quality improvement and efficiency improvement of manufacturing industries,and to remove obstacles in the process of transformation and upgrading.First,we must clarify the role of house price fluctuations and labor mobility in the process of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.Although domestic scholars have done more research on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and housing price fluctuations,including housing price fluctuations and regulation policies,housing price fluctuations and macroeconomics,factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industries,and manufacturing agglomeration and transfer caused by housing price fluctuations,etc.But how does housing price volatility affect the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and how housing price volatility affects the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry through labor mobility?Therefore,this paper takes the stage of entering high-quality development as the background,and deeply analyzes the impact mechanism of housing price fluctuation and labor mobility on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.This will have important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the stable development of the real estate market,building a long-term development mechanism for real estate,and further promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.This study reviews the causes of housing price volatility,the impact of housing price volatility on the social economy,industrial upgrading,the impact of housing price volatility on industrial restructuring,and the impact of housing price volatility on manufacturing industry up grades,with industrial upgrading theory and labor mobility theory.Based on the relevant theories of real estate economic theory and new economic geography theory,the housing price factor is included in the core-edge model of the new economic geography,indicating that the price difference will have an impact on the upgrading level of the manufacturing industry.Then from the perspective of cost-driven,this paper discusses the internal logic of housing price fluctuations affecting labor mobility and manufacturing upgrading.It points out that housing price fluctuations affect the manufacturing industry by significantly affecting production costs or living costs.From the four aspects of quality and efficiency,innovation ability,information technology and green development,a comprehensive evaluation index system for manufacturing transformation and upgrading was constructed to measure its comprehensive index.Based on the entropy weight method,the index weights are determined,and the panel data of 29 provinces and municipalities in 2007-2016 are used to measure the development level of China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading.And analyze the changing trend of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,as well as the heterogeneity characteristics of various provinces and cities.The results show that the main factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry are innovation capability,quality efficiency,green development and information technology.This shows that in the process of transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,the most important thing is to rely on the innovation ability of the manufacturing industry.The level of China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading has shown a steady upward trend,laying a good foundation for the subsequent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry;There are significant differences in the level of manufacturing upgrading in various provinces and municipalities in China.In general,the index of development and upgrading of manufacturing in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions.From the analysis of the current situation of housing price fluctuations and the upgrading of manufacturing industry,China's housing price-to-income ratio is very different between different provinces and cities.The structural problems are prominent,showing the spatial pattern of "East high-west low";The output value of the manufacturing industry,the labor force of the manufacturing industry,the investment in R&D funds,and the overall performance of the import and export of manufacturing products are on the rise,but there are obvious industry and regional differences in the domestic development of the manufacturing industry;There is a certain correlation between house price fluctuations and manufacturing upgrades,but it is not a purely positive or negative correlation.There is a stage difference in the impact of housing price fluctuations on manufacturing upgrades.In the empirical analysis of the internal mechanism of housing price fluctuations directly leading to manufacturing upgrades,Firstly,Granger causality test is carried out on the two,and then the linear and non-linear effects of housing price fluctuation on manufacturing upgrading are quantitatively analyzed,and the effect of relative housing prices on manufacturing upgrading is discussed in different regions.The empirical results show that during the sample data period,the explanatory variable of the lag period is the same as the direction of the explanatory variable of the current period,and the estimation result of the explanatory variable parameter is basically consistent with the theoretically derived conclusion.That is to say,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the relative housing prices and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.When the relative housing prices continue to rise,the level of manufacturing upgrading will also rise before the turning point,and the trend after the turning point will decline.The findings provide new evidence for the negative effects of excessive real estate booms,and provide a case for China in terms of linkages between housing price volatility and manufacturing transformation and upgrading.In terms of the internal mechanism that labor mobility as an intermediate variable drives the manufacturing upgrade indirectly,it studies from a spatial perspective and analyzes the spatial interdependence of real estate prices and manufacturing industry upgrades.Based on the geographical location characteristics and socio-economic characteristics,the neighbor weight matrix,geographic distance matrix and economic distance matrix are also constructed.Constructing spatial lag model and spatial error model based on these three different angles,analyzing the impact of ho using price fluctuation on C hina's manufacturing industry upgrading.It is concluded that there is a significant spatial correlation between China's housing price level and manufacturing industry upgrading,with the characteristics of high level regional concentration and low level regional concentration;China's housing price fluctuations have a significant non-linear effect on labor mobility.The relative employment rate of real estate prices and manufacturing industries is inverse U-Kuznets curve relationship;At present,China's overall housing price level has a strong spatial impact on the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Relatively rising house prices have prompted the manufacturing industry to climb from the low-end value chain to the high-end value chain and achieve industrial upgrading.However,the relationship between housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai and the industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry has already entered the right side of the inverted U-shaped curve.The increase in the relative employment rate of the manufacturing industry is conducive to increasing the relative output value of the manufacturing industry.The rise in housing prices will eventually lead to the outflow of labor.As the labor force continues to overflow,it will ultimately be detrimental to the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Based on the above research results,this study believes that the government should incorporate regional location factors and economic development factors into the framework of manufacturing upgrade-related policies.It is necessary to formulate control policies for housing prices according to local conditions and urban conditions,and incorporate manufacturing industry development policies,labor mobility policies,and housing price control policies into a unified policy system.The organic combination of manufacturing industry development,labor mobility and house price regulation will further promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. |
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