Study On Tobin Tax Policy Choice Based On The Perspective Of RMB Exchange Rate

At present,with the gradual opening of China's capital account and the acceleration of the process of internationalization of the RMB,the impact of international capital flows on China's economy and finance is becoming greater and greater.October 2017,At the 19th CPC National Congress,it was clearly mentioned that "it is necessary to improve the two-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy,and comprehensively promote the reform and development of interest rate and exchange rate marketization;".Central Bank Governor Yi Gang also said at a working meeting in 2019 to "improve cross-border capital flows' macro-prudential micro-regulatory 'regulatory framework."Therefore,the expansion of opening and orderly regulation will become the main trend of foreign exchange management for a period of time in the future.Therefore,in the context of the lack of full convertibility of China's capital account and the volatility of the global foreign exchange market,in order to strengthen the resistance ability to speculative attacks,effectively maintain macroeconomic stability and the independence of monetary policy,To study the feasibility and availability of Tobin tax policy,the construction of cross-border capital flows prudential management framework has practical value and theoretical significance.The main ideas of this paper are:Starting from the causes and development history of tobin tax,and on the basis of fully referring to domestic and foreign research literature and practical experience,a theoretical model is constructed to analyze the dynamic impact of tobin tax on exchange rate fluctuations after its implementation.At the same time,based on the data of RMB exchange rate,this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between tobin tax and exchange rate fluctuations from the perspectives of the offshore RMB foreign exchange market and the onshore RMB foreign exchange market,and then analyzes the effectiveness of tobin tax policy,and puts forward countermeasures and Suggestions for China's tobin tax policy choice.The main structures of this paper are:First of all,this paper introduces the background,related concepts,theoretical basis and domestic and foreign research literature of Tobin tax,combs some foreign practices about Tobin tax and summarizes the practice content and the preliminary effect of the implementation.At the same time,this paper introduces the progressive environment of Chinese foreign exchange market,including the history of the formation and development of the inter-bank foreign exchange market,the emergence and development of overseas RMB offshore market,and the influence of the change of foreign exchange market mechanism and openness degree on the decision-making behavior of the central bank.Secondly,this paper puts the noise trader into a new Keynesian model which is a small open economic model with incomplete market.This model includes four departments,including households,foreign exchange dealers,government,central bank.In the DSGE model,this paper studies the impact of the implementation of Tobin tax policy on exchange rate fluctuations.According to the impulse response analysis of the DSGE model,the nominal exchange rate fluctuation-the indicator representing the stability of the foreign exchange market-behaves differently under the impact of foreign exchange trading risks,technologies and interest rates,and Tobin tax can play a positive role in stabilizing exchange rate.At the same time,the independence of monetary policy becomes even more important after the implementation of the Tobin tax policy.Thirdly,on the basis of summarizing the relevant research theories of Tobin tax at home and abroad,this paper studies the relationship between Tobin tax and the scale of speculative transaction in foreign exchange market by constructing a new DSGE model.We use the transaction scale as the proxy variable for the implementation of Tobin tax,and study the effects of trade scales of onshore RMB exchange rate(USD/CNY)and offshore RMB exchange rate(USD/CNH)on exchange rate fluctuation respectively by using the Smooth transition regression(STR)model,and then evaluate the effectiveness of the Tobin tax policy.The empirical results show that,in the onshore foreign exchange market,the effectiveness of Tobin tax policy is highly uncertain,and the market conditions are not yet available for the implementation of Tobin tax policy.In the offshore exchange market-the "speculation leading" period of the surge in the transaction scale-the correlation between transaction size and volatility increases significantly,with both asymmetric and non-linear characteristics,and Tobin tax becomes an effective means to reduce exchange rate fluctuation.Also,the role of the Tobin tax in stabilizing the exchange rate is obvious in the short term.Finally,based on theoretical research and empirical results,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from the specific application of Tobin tax,collection mechanism and market conditions in view of China's foreign and domestic reality.In this paper,the innovation points are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,this paper makes full use of the research methods of foreign literatures to incorporate the idea of Tobin tax into the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model(DSGE)model,and studies the influence of the implementation of Tobin tax policy on exchange rate fluctuation,and then evaluates the effectiveness of Tobin tax policy.The second is to combine the theory of Tobin tax with the management practice of Chinese foreign exchange market.Through the empirical analysis of econometric model,we solve the problem of how to make an empirical study on the validity of Tobin tax under the condition of not implementing police in China,and fill the gap of empirical measurement of Tobin tax in China.Third,on the basis of analyzing the current situation of China's foreign exchange market development,this paper evaluates the validity of Tobin tax from two perspectives of onshore RMB exchange rate(USD/CNY)and offshore RMB exchange rate(USD/CNH),and gets rid of the constraints of the lack of RMB exchange rate data which can reflect marketization behavior,and then expand the domestic theory research methods of Tobin tax.