Global Natural Graphite Trade Supply Risk Assessment And Trade Re-allocation Strategy Study

At present,trade disputes among countries around the world are increasing,which also raises concerns about the security of supply of key minerals needed by strategic emerging industries.Therefore,major countries in the world have formulated key mineral strategies to ensure the security of supply.As one of the key minerals closely related to the strategic emerging industries,graphite is regarded as a strategic resource necessary for the development of new energy and has been paid more and more attention by various countries.However,due to the uneven distribution of graphite,graphite resources in most countries are obtained through international trade.Therefore,it is particularly important to understand the pattern of graphite trade network,simulate the supply risk of different countries and how to redistribute trade after risk.This paper takes international trade risk management theory as the main line of research,the main research work and main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the complex economic theory and the resource endowment theory,the global natural graphite trade networks are constructed.The global trade pattern of natural graphite is analyzed by combining the research needs of national trade pattern and national role and the characteristic parameters of complex network.It is found that the graphite trade is gradually globalized,the trade has certain characteristics of collectization,and a few countries play an important role in the graphite trade.On the basis of trade pattern analysis,the importance and vulnerability of different countries in graphite trade are evaluated.According to this,country heterogeneity is proposed,and the countries involved in graphite trade are divided into four categories to reflect the differences in supply risks of different countries(2)Considering the heterogeneity of different countries respond to risk and risk transmission,based on complex economic theory,constructs the corresponding supply risk propagation model.The influence of supply risks of graphite trading countries and major trade relations between countries on the whole graphite trade are evaluated,the losses of supply risks of different countries and inter-country trade relations on the whole graphite trade are quantified.The propagation path of national supply risk in the graphite trade is analyzed.It provides important reference for global graphite trade,helps to understand and prevent the occurrence of risks,and raises the awareness of risk prevention.(3)Based on the theory of information economics and the maximum entropy principle,the trade redistribution model is constructed.Taking the countries and trade relations with strong influence as examples,this paper analyzes how to redistribute the trade among countries to minimize the loss caused by the risk and provides effective risk response strategy for global graphite trade.This strategy aims to let all the countries involved in the graphite trade shared the risk to spread the risk.Among them,the countries with large import and export changes with other countries are of great importance,such as China,Japan,the United States and Germany.