| Influenced by the decreasing barley planting area and the increasing of beer consumption demand of China,the domestic demand of barley needs to rely on imported barley to make up the gap between production and demand.The average annual import volume of barley in China is 1.81 million tons from2004 to 2013,the import volume is relatively stable.Recently,the import volume of barley has soared,the average annual import volume increased to 7.36 million tons from 2014 to 2018.What's more,it reached the highest level of 10.73 million tons in 2015.As a result of trade regulation,the annual fluctuation of barley imports increased significantly with the surge of barley imports,which created great uncertainty to the sound development of barley and related industries in China.It disturbs the reform of corn market;it is difficult for the government to regulate the domestic barley market and stabilize its price;it poses a huge challenge to farmers' income and poverty alleviation in some specific areas.Therefore,it is of great practical significance for improving barley trade and industrial policy to clarify the causes and influences of barley import.This study first summarizes the supply and demand characteristics under the condition of trade opening by using descriptive statistical methods.Secondly,it establishes a simultaneous equation system model to analyze the substitution effect of barley import on domestic corn market and the reasons for the increase of barley import.Then,it focuses on the impact of imported barley on domestic barley market and related industry market,using Armington model to analyze the substitution elasticity of imported barley to domestic barley,using residual demand elasticity model to analyze the substitution effect of China's barley import on other barley importing countries' import sources,using spatial durbin model to analyze the impact of barley import price on China's beer international trade.Next,using logit model to analyze the relative price change of barley on Farmers' planting structure.Finally,we use the extended gravity model to analyze the impact of trade regulation on barley import.Based on this,the main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,China's barley import fluctuation will tend to be more normalized.On the one hand,the supply and demand of the world barley market maintain a "tight balance" state.On the other hand,China's barley import is affected by the strong demand for feed consumption and the adjustment of trade regulation measures,and the fluctuation of barley import is obviously intensified,coupled with the high concentration of the import market,which will bring challenges about import and industrial development of China's barley.Secondly,The price of imported barley is lower than that of domestic corn and barley,which leads to the sharp increase of barley feed consumption demand,which is the main reason for the increasing of barley import in China.The barley price advantage can significantly reduce the domestic corn feed consumption,when the barley price advantage increased by 100 yuan per ton,the domestic corn consumption will decrease by 2.842 million tons.When the barley price advantage and the price difference between domestic and foreign barley expands,the barley import will increase significantly.In a word,the substitution effect of barley on corn caused by the price advantage of barley which is themain reason for barley import surges.Thirdly,the increasing of barley import has an obvious and direct impact on the domestic barley market and beer trade.Specifically reflected in three aspects: imported barley has a substitution effect on domestic barley;the increasing of barley import in China has a spillover effect on Australia and other major barley exporting countries;higher price of imported barley has an impact on domestic beer import and export.Fourthly,the sharp increase of barley import has a negative impact on domestic barley production.From the macro level,barley import has a significant negative effect on barley planting area of China,and there is a certain lag.When the barley imports in the previous year increased by 1%,the domestic barley planting area in this year will be reduced by 2.418%,which to some extent shows that the imported barley has obviously squeezed the domestic barley planting scale.From the micro level,the relative price of barley can significantly enhance the willingness of farmers to grow barley.When the price of barley is higher than that of other competitive crops,the willingness of farmers to grow barley will increase.Fifthly,trade regulations can significantly reduce the scale of barley imports.Among them,the inclusion of barley in the catalogue of goods under automatic import license management has a significant negative impact on China's barley import,while the bilateral free trade agreements have not significantly affected China's barley import.Based on the above conclusions,we put forward the following policy recommendations: Firstly,broaden the barley import channels and reduce the concentration of the import market.Secondly,make the policy in advance to deal with the spillover effect of barley import.Thirdly,develop potential productive forces of barley dominant areas to the full.Fourthly,improve the barley import monitoring and early-warning system and trade remedy system.The main innovations of this study include: Firstly,it's a comprehensive and profound analysis of the causes of China's barley import based on the perspective of substitution effect;Secondly,it gives a systematic explanation of the spillover effect of barley import,which provides a practical basis for the coordination of policy making between barley and related industries;Thirdly,it gives a quantitative evaluation of the effect of barley trade policy. |
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