Research On Investment Forecast And PPP Financing Mechanism Of Urban Infrastructure Under The Background Of New Urbanization

With the deepening of new urbanization,urban infrastructure construction bears the brunt.To implement the strategy of high-quality urbanization,infrastructure is bound to face a new round of upgrading construction,but also a huge financing needs.Local governments are facing mounting financial pressure and need to explore new sources of funding.PPP financing mode can introduce social capital into urban infrastructure construction and realize joint investment,complementary advantages,risk sharing and benefit sharing between public and private,so it has become a hot topic in research and practice.Summary of the current research content: The existing researches on infrastructure investment and financing give little consideration to the development trend of new urbanization and the demand characteristics of urban infrastructure.Therefore,this dissertation takes this as a breakthrough point to effectively solve the needs of urban infrastructure investment in the context of new urbanization.What is the investment demand? How to attract social capital through PPP mode? How to ensure the smooth progress of PPP projects? The following research work was carried out for the purpose.Firstly,the dissertation analyzes the development trend of new urbanization and the characteristics of new infrastructure construction,effectively identifies the influencing factors of urban infrastructure investment demand,and sets correction factors to measure the development level of various urban infrastructure systems and the infrastructure construction demand under the background of new urbanization,so as to solve the question “What is the investment demand?”.The quantitative relationship between investment demand and influencing factors is established by means of regression analysis,so as to establish the forecast model of infrastructure investment.Secondly,it focuses on the research of government subsidy and paid pricing mechanism for quasi-operational and non-operational urban infrastructure PPP projects,so as to solve the question “How to attract social capital through PPP mode?”.It satisfies the interest demands of social capital and successfully attracts social capital to participate in urban infrastructure construction projects.Finally,a revenue distribution mechanism that can be adjusted according to the change of project risk during project operation is designed,on the basis of identifying risks in project construction and operation,so as to solve the question “How to ensure the smooth progress of PPP projects?”.Four correction factors of contribution value of input proportion,complexity of task,risk sharing,were introduced to construct a modified Shapley value benefit distribution model.Meanwhile,a dynamic adjustment mechanism was designed to timely adjust project benefit distribution according to project risk changes.The innovation points of this dissertation are as follows:(1)The infrastructure investment demand prediction model under the background of new urbanization was constructed.Based on the analysis and prediction of single influencing factors,a variety of influencing factors such as economic development,population and urbanization rate are comprehensively considered.This dissertation summarizes the development trend of new urbanization and the demand characteristics of urban infrastructure,identifies and analyzes the correction factors of each urban infrastructure subsystem,effectively measure the level of infrastructure construction.Moreover,the regression analysis method is used to establish the prediction model of investment demand of urban infrastructure,and the scenario analysis and trend extrapolation are used to predict the urban infrastructure in China,so as to define the investment demand of infrastructure.(2)The government subsidies and payment pricing mechanisms for both quasi-operational and non-operational infrastructure projects were established and improved.A minimum subsidy decision model based on the economic feasibility of the project and a maximum subsidy decision model considering the cost of social capital effort and project benefit are established for quasi-operational infrastructure projects.For non-operating projects,the government-paid pricing mechanism is improved by constructing a government-paid pricing model which considers the optimal social benefits and the utility of social capital.(3)Dynamic income distribution replaces static income distribution.This dissertation proposes a dynamic revenue distribution mechanism for urban infrastructure PPP projects based on risk sharing,which changes the previous static revenue distribution method,maximizes the equality between actual risk sharing and actual revenue distribution,and improves the fairness and flexibility of revenue distribution.