The Study On The Linkage Mechanism Of Treasury Cash Management Between Central And Local Government In China

After more than ten years of exploration and efforts,the reform of the financial treasury management system has made significant progress,and functions such as budget execution management and monitoring,financial financing and financial management,financial operation information analysis and reflection,macroeconomic regulation and control,and policy implementation have been basically established.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to ‘accelerate the establishment of a modern fiscal system and give better play to the foundation and important pillars of finance in state governance.' Article 59 of the new Budget Law clearly stipulates that ‘all levels of government shall follow the State Council's regulations to improve the treasury cash management and rationally adjust the balance of treasury funds',which has pointed out the direction for the further improvement and development of the treasury cash management system.Treasury cash management has also made considerable progress as an important part of establishing and improving the modern treasury management system.First of all,the treasury single account system has been basically established,the fiscal fund payment and payment methods have become more and more perfect,and the efficiency of fiscal funds has been significantly improved.Secondly,the management level of treasury cash investment and financing has been continuously improved,and a relatively stable investment and financing mechanism has been established.The scale of treasury cash management operations has also increased year by year.Thirdly,the treasury cash flow forecasting work has been carried out.By constructing the basic database,forecasting information system and forecasting information meeting mechanism,it has been able to predict and analyze the inflow and outflow of treasury cash flow in a certain period of time.It can be said that the treasury cash management plays an increasingly important role in the overall optimization of government financial resources and the efficiency of the budget execution system.The results of China's fiscal treasury management reform have been fully affirmed and highly praised by the World Bank,the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,the International Monetary Fund and other international organizations.However,the structural problems of the treasury cash management involving the central and local levels are gradually exposed.The central and local treasury cash flow forecasting system has not been perfected.The central and local fiscal fund base target balance management system has never been established.As a result,the central and local treasury cash management's operational system of normalization,equilibrium and institutionalization has not been standardized,and the problems of low data sharing at the central and local levels,disjointed management systems,and slow macroeconomic policy transmission are particularly high,which are protruding.However,treasury cash management is a complex system engineering,which includes cash flow outflow control,optimal base balance determination,cash balance investment management and other treasury cash use activities,as well as treasury operations such as bilateral operations in the money market and short-term government bond issuance.The content of cash collection also involves the treasury single account system,the communication mechanism with the People's Bank of China,the development of financial markets,and the government accounting system.The complexity of the system itself is intertwined with the problems existing in reality,and gradually becomes a ‘bottleneck' that restricts the development of treasury cash management.It is urgent to further advance the reform of the treasury cash management system.With the steady implementation of the central treasury cash management and the gradual opening of the local treasury cash management,the interaction between the central and local governments in the treasury cash management is increasing.International experience shows that a sound treasury cash management system not only needs to achieve centralized control over treasury funds,but also effective investment and financing operations for treasury cash,which is efficient management on a central(federal)and local government basis.At present,for China's treasury cash management reform and development,it is urgent to establish a stable,scientific and efficient operational guarantee mechanism,which is an effective means to solve the problems and contradictions in the construction of China's current treasury cash management system,and to rationalize the central government and localities.It is a very important Gripper that we straighten out the government's treasury cash management relationship and compact the important focus of the local government's risk management responsibility.As the Chinese government continues to strengthen its leadership and regulation of the macro economy,in the future financial treasury management system system,the treasury cash management covering both the central and local levels will be in a pivotal position,and the sound of the central and local treasury cash will be improved.The management linkage mechanism will be the only way and an important starting point for the construction of an advanced treasury cash management system.Starting from the theoretical and historical perspectives,using the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative research,the theoretical basis of fiscal decentralization,information economics,cash management and institutional change,this paper analyzes the present situation and existing problems of central and local treasury cash management,and systematically expounds the linkage mechanism design of central and local treasury cash management from the aspects of linkage target,linkage factor,operation mechanism and linkage structure,and thus construct the theoretical model and empirical model,which deeply analyze the support system of the central and local treasury cash management linkage mechanism,sort out the typical experience and good practices of mature market economy countries,and finally put forward policy recommendations.This article is divided into five parts:The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter.The first chapter is an introduction,which expounds the research background and research significance of this paper.It summarizes the related literatures of treasury cash management at home and abroad,analyzes the main contents and research methods of this paper,and defines the related concepts of this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical basis,which summarizes the theoretical systems of fiscal decentralization,information economics,cash management and institutional change,and analyzes the correlation with this paper after each theoretical basis.The second part is the third chapter of the thesis,which introduces the changes,status quo and problem analysis of China's treasury cash management system.Firstly,using the theory of institutional change,the paper analyzes the development process of China's treasury cash management system from three aspects-entrusted treasury system,institutional framework establishment and system improvement.Secondly,the status quo of China's treasury cash management is analyzed from the central and local levels.Finally,the problems existing in the operation of China's treasury cash management are put forward,and the key to break through the bottleneck is to construct a linkage mechanism between central and local treasury cash management.The third part is the fourth chapter of the thesis,the design of the central and local treasury cash management linkage mechanism.Firstly,the objectives and components of the linkage mechanism are clarified,including the body elements,the guest elements and the environmental elements.Secondly,based on the three sub-mechanisms of information sharing,coordination docking and risk warning,the central and local treasury cash management linkage mechanism is constructed,and the operation mechanism of the three sub-mechanisms is analyzed.Finally,the level and structure of the linkage mechanism are analyzed.Based on the point-line-plane,the whole linkage mechanism is systematically constructed.The fourth part includes the fifth chapter of the thesis,the research on the supporting system of the treasury cash management linkage mechanism.The first section uses the SARIMA model,the deep cycle neural network model and the combined algorithm model to predict the time series of cash income,expenditure and stock balance of the treasury.Using the accuracy evaluation index and the turning point index,the accuracy of the three models is compared.In the second section,the theoretical model is constructed from the two aspects of the base currency and the currency multiplier.The influence of the treasury cash management operation mode on monetary policy is analyzed,and the empirical test is carried out by using the measurement model.The fifth part includes the sixth and seventh chapters of the thesis.The sixth chapter experiences and inspires the construction of the central and local treasury cash management linkage mechanism abroad.It introduces the main contents and typical practices of the treasury cash management of mature market economy countries such as the United States,Britain,France and Australia,and summarizes and refines the treasury cash management of China.The seventh chapter concludes and proposes relevant policy recommendations for further improving China's treasury cash management system,including promoting the reform of the fiscal treasury management system,improving the central treasury cash management,consolidating local treasury cash management,and coordinating central and local treasury cash management policies suggestions.The innovative points of this paper are as follows,1.In the fourth chapter of this paper clarifies the objectives and components of the linkage mechanism,including the body elements,the guest elements and the environmental elements.Based on the three sub-mechanisms of information sharing,coordination docking and risk warning,the central and local treasury cash management linkage mechanism is constructed,and the operation mechanism of the three sub-mechanisms is analyzed.The level and structure of the linkage mechanism are analyzed,with point-line-Based on the surface,the entire linkage mechanism was systematically constructed.2.The fifth chapter of this paper uses the SARIMA model,the deep cycle neural network model and the combined algorithm model to predict the time series of cash income,expenditure and stock balance of the treasury.Using the accuracy evaluation index and the turning point index,the three models are compared.Predictive accuracy.3.The fifth chapter of the thesis constructs a theoretical model from the two aspects of the base currency and the currency multiplier,analyzes the impact of the treasury cash management operation mode on monetary policy,and conducts an empirical test using the measurement model.