| As a republic of the Soviet Union,the economic development of the five Central Asian countries(including Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan)has long been in the regulation and control of the Soviet Union's planned economic system.Under the "labor division of labor" in the Soviet Union,Central Asia The country has developed a developmental structure with a single industrial structure and strong economic dependence.Since the independence of the early 1990 s,the five Central Asian countries have begun to implement political and economic reforms,to achieve the transition from a planned economy to a market economy.After transformating and explorating for more than 10 years,the countries of Central Asia have begun to enter the road of recovery in the 21 st century,the market-oriented reforms have begun to take effect and the economies of various countries have entered a stable development track,while forming a certain characteristic development model.Due to the initial conditions of transformation and the different economic growth paths chosen by countries,the Central Asian countries show certain differences on economic growth patterns.Some countries have formed a resource-dependent growth model based on their relatively abundant oil and gas resources,while some non-resources-dependent countries have promoted domestic demand-driven economic growth models by relying on internal consumption and other demand.These different economic growth models have led to differences in the economic development and structure of Central Asian countries,so as the internal and external risks faced by countries.From the perspective of the economic development of Central Asian countries,their internal economic risks are mainly at two levels: the vulnerability risk and the imbalance risk,the former is mainly reflected in the poor economic base of the relevant countries,as well as their industrialization level,infrastructure,financial market,etc,and the lack of economic growth momentum leads to a lower ability to withstand economic shocks.The latter shows that some countries are over-reliant on their rich oil and gas or mineral resources,resulting in a single industrial structure and being vulnerable to the commodity commodity price cycle,making countries vulnerable to financial crisis,high inflation,high unemployment and other risks.As for the Central Asian countries,due to their different industrial structure,degree of market liberalization,growth model and the performance of economic risks in different periods,they present different characteristics of internal economic risks.In terms of the external environment of the economic development of Central Asian countries and the status of foreign economic and trade cooperation among countries,the external risks faced by Central Asian countries are mainly the geostrategic game of major world powers,external shocks caused by price fluctuations in international commodity markets,etc..The external risks make the Central Asian countries show certain dependence risks in the foreign economy,which comes from two levels: the dependence on the economic trade of some big countries,and the dependence on the international commodity market.These dependencies are expressed through transmission channels such as trade,investment,and remittances.Due to their different dependence on energy trade,foreign direct investment and remittance income,Central Asian countries have different external economic risk characteristics,As far as they are concerned.At the same time,under the conditions of rapid development of the innovation economy,Central Asian countries are also facing emerging economic risks brought about by the innovation economy.As a new economic form represented by information technology and digital economy and driven by talents,knowledge and innovation,the innovation economy has strong endogenous growth momentum and represents the future economic development direction.However,due to its weak economic foundation,the Central Asian countries are still in their infancy,and their basic strengths in science and technology innovation are seriously inadequate.They will be in a relatively passive state in future economic development and regional geo-competition.Under the background of China's rapid development of innovation economy,Central Asian countries and China have certain complementarities in the field of innovation economy,which brings more opportunities for Central Asian countries to cope with emerging risks.In the context of the " Belt and Road " Initiative,the Central Asian countries are also actively promoting cooperation with China in trade,investment,production capacity,finance and other fields,and emerging risks of the innovation economy,as important fulcrum countries along the "silk road economic belt".However,the characteristics of internal and external economic risks--such as vulnerability,imbalance,and external dependence--faced by Central Asian countries have also brought certain challenges to bilateral and multilateral cooperation under the “Belt and Road Initiative”,including the bilateral trade excessive concentration in the energy sector,project investment and financing environment,shortage of bilateral financial cooperation,poor project propulsion by geographical factors interference,etc..To get rid of the backward economic situation,and under the demands of economic diversification,and the “Belt and Road Initiative” mutual benefit and win-win situation,which bring many cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries.For the innovation economy,the Central Asian countries have issued digital economic development plans one after another,which perfectly aligns with China's "Digital Silk Road" strategy and brings new opportunities for cooperation between China and central Asia under the "Belt and Road" initiative.After years of development and accumulation Since the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013,and the construction has crossed the solid foundation and entered a stage of sustainable development.The breadth and depth of regional cooperation between China and Central Asian countries have continued to expand,while the problems and challenges are also increasing.As a region adjacent to China with important fulcrums,the active participation of Central Asian countries is of great strategic significance for promoting the implementation of the " Belt and Road " initiative.The differences in economic development of Central Asian countries and the economic risks they face will also affect the "Belt and Road" initiative is further developed.Therefore,systematically study the internal and external economic risks and emerging risks of Central Asian countries,and deeply refine the characteristics of economic risks of countries and the whole region,explore the impact of various risks on the "Belt and Road" initiative,and propose corresponding countermeasures.And the countermeasures are of great significance to the implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative” and the in-depth development of regional cooperation.In combination with domestic and foreign economic theories and existing research results,this paper adopts a qualitative and quantitative analysis method to conduct an in-depth,comprehensive and systematic study on the economic risks of Central Asian countries and their impact on the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative.The main research contents are as follows:First,we deeply analyze the historical roots and realistic backgroundof the formation of economic risks in Central Asian countries.The independent Central Asian countries have different economic growth patterns and dynamics because of their different factor endowments and economic planning.This section analyzes the economic growth trends,industrial structure,and foreign economic conditions of Central Asian countries,and based on the contribution of investment,consumption,and net exports to GDP,from resource-based and non-resource-based,market liberalization and government guidance.This paper summarizes the growth patterns of countries and explores the roots and realistic background of the formation of economic risks in Central Asian countries.The second is Assess and analyze the internal economic risks of Central Asian countries.The geographical relationship between the neighboring countries of Central Asia,the similar economic development process,and the differences in their respective internal economic structures and economic growth patterns have led to the commonalities of individual countries' economic risks.Based on the situation of Central Asian countries,from the perspective of internal vulnerabilities and imbalances of the economy,This part uses relevant economic indicators as a measure factor,and uses risk indicator evaluation methods to assess the economic risks of countries,and the internal economic risks from Central Asian countries,then the comprehensive analysis of the economic risks of Central Asian countries is carried out.This section analyzes the development of innovative economy in Central Asian countries and the emerging risks faced by Central Asian countries under the innovative economy.Third,assess and analyze the external economic risks of Central Asian countries.The economic development of Central Asian countries faces external risks such as the geopolitical game of big countries and the impact of international energy prices.These external economic risks have caused Central Asian countries to have certain dependence on foreign trade,foreign investment and foreign exchange earnings.Based on the theory of economic synergy and economic dependence,this part analyzes the external economic risk characteristics of foreign countries,foreign investment,foreign exchange income and other indicators,and analyzes the external economic risk characteristics of each country.External risks of sub-national economic development.Fourth,study the impact of internal and external economic risks of Central Asian countries on the “Belt and Road” initiative.Under the “Belt and Road” initiative,the strategic position of the Central Asian region is highlighted,which made the characteristics of internal and external economic risks,such as the vulnerability,imbalance and external dependence,and emerging risks of the innovation economy,have a greater impact on the “Belt and Road” initiative.Based on the perspective of “One Belt,One Road”,this part explores the impact mechanism of internal and external economic risks on cooperation between Central Asia and China through empirical analysis.On this basis,it analyzes the impact of internal and external economic risks and innovation economic risks in Central Asian countries.Study the opportunities and challenges that the economic risks of Central Asian countries bring to the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative.Fifth,explore the risk response measures for the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative in the central Asia region.Central Asian countries face vulnerabilities,imbalances,external dependence,and emerging risks of innovative economies,so that the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative will inevitably have to deal with various economic risks of Central Asian countries.In addition,due to the differences in economic development and economic risk characteristics of Central Asian countries,cooperation between China and Central Asian countries should focus on the characteristics of different countries,implement different cooperative paths,and obtain more while avoiding risks.opportunity.On this basis,this paper discusses the risk response measures implemented by the “Belt and Road” initiative in the Central Asia region from the perspectives of project implementation,bilateral cooperation,regional mutual benefit and China's itself resolves.Through the research,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)the internal economic risks of Central Asian countries are mainly reflected in the risk of vulnerability and imbalance.The economic risk characteristics of the five countries can be divided into three levels: Kazakhstan is “high imbalance,low vulnerability”,and Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Turkmenistan are "high imbalance,high vulnerability",and Uzbekistan is "low imbalance,low vulnerability".(2)the external economic risks of Central Asian countries are mainly manifested as external dependence risks,and the economic risk characteristics of the five countries can be divided into three levels: Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are "high energy trade,foreign capital dependence";.(3)the Central Asian countries in economic development is facing innovation condition of weak economic foundation,the future economic development space is further compressed,emerging risks such as regional long-term geopolitical competition in a passive state,but in central Asia and China national digital development planning for the construction of "Digital Silk Road" strategic docking,emerging risks to bring new opportunity "area" initiative.(4)The internal and external risks of Asian countries bring corresponding opportunities and challenges to the implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative”.Opportunities include countries that will change their economic backwardness and achieve diversified economic development will actively strengthen economic and trade cooperation with China,policy communication,and popular support.The challenges are that the“Belt and Road” project has many obstacles to investment,the poor investment and financing environment,and the uneven distribution of cooperation areas,as well as the response to external economic fluctuations.Factors such as geostrategic game.(5)The implementation of the ”Belt and Road” initiative in Central Asian countries needs to be implemented from projects and bilaterally.Active risk response at three levels of cooperation and regional mutual benefit,including strengthening the interconnection foundation,improving the investment and financing environment,selecting a differentiated cooperation path,strengthening bilateral financial and innovation cooperation,promoting regional RMB internationalization,and docking national digital economic strategies,and so on.The innovation of this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the economic situation and internal and external economic risks of Central Asian countries by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and panel data model and combining the theories of national economic risk assessment,economic synergy and economic interdependence.From the perspectives of vulnerability,imbalance,external dependence and emerging risks of innovative economy,this paper summarizes the characteristics of economic risks of Central Asian countries and their impact on the“Belt and Road” initiative.bilateral cooperation and regional mutual benefit,the risk response measures of the implementation of the“Belt and Road” initiative in Central Asian countries are discussed in detail and in-depth.Due to the complexity of the problem,the broadness of the research perspective and the difficulty of obtaining relevant data,this paper is difficult to consider and lack of in-depth research on the specific situation of the countries in Central Asia and the implementation of specific issues in the “Belt and Road” initiative,that is the main direction that this paper needs to be further improved in the future. |
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