| With the migration of high-quality labor forces,the continuous increase of non-agricultural employment,and the serious imbalance structure of left-behind labor forces,service outsourcing around the agricultural production processes has been widespread in China's agricultural production field,and its market has developed rapidly.Agricultural production processes outsourcing(APPO)has found a possible way to link small farmers with modern agricultural development under the inherent constraints of the current system and factor endowments.It has gradually evolved into a new direction of the development of agricultural economies of scale(AES)under the theme of deepening market-oriented reform and deepening social division of labor.Based on the basic hypothesis that APPO may be beneficial to promoting the growth of AES under the condition of deepening agricultural division of labor,this study focuses on the scientific question that how APPO,which is characterized by socialization of division of labor and marketization of services,promotes the AES.This paper is to reveal the role of APPO in promoting AES,and to analyze the possible paths of APPO in promoting the realization of AES.Firstly,the basic analysis framework of “service outsourcing – economies of division of labor-economies of scale” is established.The evolution logic and economic effects of APPO are systematically analyzed,and the accurate measurement model of AES is theoretically deduced.Secondly,based on the macro and micro perspectives,this paper analyses the characteristics,facts and development status of APPO and AES.Then,the logical clue of “service outsourcing-behavioral ability-transaction cost-economies of scale" is defined,and the quantile regression and threshold regression models are constructed to demonstrate the impact of APPO on AES and its structural differences.Finally,based on the perspective of configuration,this paper introduces the technology of Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)to explore the factors combination and its realization path of APPO affecting AES.1.Basic conclusion(1)The development of APPO in China has obvious macro and micro characteristics and structural differences.Macroscopically,APPO follows two main evolutionary logics: deepening division of labor based on property rights division and technology division,resource allocation based on technological progress and factor flow,showing the characteristics of gradual progress in overall time sequence,differences in variety structure and coupling with agricultural characteristics.Microscopically,there are obvious regional structural differences,crop structural differences and link attribute structural differences in the proportion of APPO.The average service outsourcing rate of three crops is 38.73%.The outsourcing rate of harvesting,land preparation and planting procedures is in the forefront.The outsourcing rate of different crop links is different.The characteristics of “rice > wheat > maize” are shown in six provinces(or cities).Secondly,the motivation of service outsourcing is mainly the insufficient family labor force,the lack of relevant agricultural machinery and equipment,and the physical inability to withstand the intensity of labor.Service outsourcing mainly comes from organizational subject,individual subject and company subject.Labor-intensive APPO mainly comes from organizational and individual subject,while technology-intensive link mainly comes from government and company subject.Thirdly,the business scope of the four main providers of service outsourcing is mainly concentrated in the township areas,while the main providers of cross-county or cross-province services are very few.Fourthly,whether in terms of the overall proportion or the specific proportion of procedures,the proportion of farmers' willingness to outsource services in procedures is higher than that in actual procedures.Fifthly,the valuation and payment methods of service outsourcing are complex and diverse,but cash payment is the main method.As far as the specific price is concerned,the average price of outsourcing presents the characteristics of “labor-technology-intensive procedures > labor-intensive procedures > technology-intensive procedures”.Sixth,the overall average level of APPO is 33.97%,showing the procedure attribute difference of “labor-intensive type > technology-intensive type > both labor and technology type”,“East > Middle > West” regional development difference,“rice > wheat > corn” crop structure difference and “medium scale > large scale > small scale” planting scale difference.(2)Agricultural economies of scale are quite different in China,but they are positively correlated with APPO in general.From the macro perspective,firstly,the average level of the overall agricultural economies of scale of grain reaches 1.045,which is in the state of economies of scale,and presents the characteristics of crop structure differences of “corn > wheat > japonica rice > early indica rice > medium indica rice > late indica rice”,and the regional structure characteristics of “West > Middle > East” as a whole.Regional differences of different crop economies of scale are obvious: early indica rice presents the characteristics of “East > Middle = West";middle indica rice and wheat presents the characteristics of “West > Middle > East”;late indica rice and maize presents the characteristics of “East > Middle > West”;japonica rice presents the characteristics of “Middle > West > East”.Secondly,from 1997 to 2017,except in 2013,the national grain production was in the state of economies of scale,showing a fluctuating state as a whole and a slight upward trend in recent years.The dynamic time series of economies of scale of different crops showed fluctuation trend basically,but there were some differences.From the micro perspective,firstly,the average level of agricultural economies of scale is 1.093,and in general,most farmers' production is in a state of economies of scale.Moreover,the level of agricultural scale economy presents obvious crop structural characteristics,regional structural characteristics and time dynamic characteristics.Among them,the structural characteristics of crops are characterized by the level of product economies of scale showing “maize> wheat> rice”;the regional structural characteristics are represented by the level of overall economies of scale and the average level of scale economies of rice are “East> West> Middle”.The characteristics of wheat and corn economies of scale show the characteristics of "Eastern> Central> Western";the temporal dynamics are characterized by the overall economies of scale level showing a small increase year by year,the rice economies of scale level showing a year by year feature,the wheat economies of scale level show a fluctuation characteristic of first falling and then rising,while the corn economies of scale level is decreasing year by year.Secondly,the agricultural economies of scale of farmers with different levels of APPO show some differences,and there is a statistical correlation between them.The overall level of economies of scale presents a “U” shape with the improvement of the level of APPO,which shows a positive correlation.The economies of scale level of different crops present different characteristics with the change of APPO.(3)The effect of APPO on economies of scale is rooted in professional division of labor and marketization.Through the method of ultra-marginal equilibrium analysis,the mechanism of the impact of service outsourcing on the economies of scale in X agricultural production procedures is further analyzed theoretically: 1)The improvement of agricultural product transaction efficiency under the APPO leads to the deepening of agricultural division of labor and the production of labor to intermediate products(services).Transfer,creating conditions for land transfer concentration and farmers' income.The analysis shows that the increase in the efficiency of agricultural product trading will increase the number of agricultural production service providers and technical service providers,and reduce the number of producers of agricultural products.With the transformation of the traditional model to the service outsourcing structure,some traditional producers will shift to the agricultural productive services and technical service sectors,causing the labor share of the agricultural production sector to decline.This means that,on the one hand,the expansion of the per capita quantity of agricultural production factors,especially the expansion of the land per unit area of the land,creates favorable conditions for the concentration of land circulation and other factors,and contributes to the moderate expansion of the scale of agricultural operations.On the other hand,the cross-sectoral transfer of agricultural labor,the degree of agricultural labor and the degree of specialization will be improved,and the increase in farmers' income will be achieved based on the labor price gap between departments.2)Under the conditions of service outsourcing,the agricultural product producers and the technical service providers realize the division of labor and carry out different specialization activities,so that they can benefit from the improvement of the technical service productivity.Compared with the traditional model structure,the improvement of agricultural product transaction efficiency under service outsourcing leads to the migration of labor to intermediate product production,and presents a more extensive and significant positive effect of division of labor network.Based on the positive effect of this division of labor network,when the service outsourcing structure appears,the productivity increase of technical service providers and agricultural producers can promote the market capacity of technical services and the market capacity of agricultural products respectively;the increase of market capacity of agricultural products can also be the increase in the productivity of service provider that promotes the productivity increase of the producer;the market capacity of the technical service and the market capacity of the agricultural product can mutually promote each other.The expansion of the market capacity of intermediate products such as agricultural productive services and technical services,especially agricultural products,indicates an increase in market demand,which will further stimulate the additional investment of business entities and expand the scale of operations,and enhance their motivation to pursue economies of scale.The per capita real income is improved by the interaction of these positive effects.(4)The positive impact of APPO on economies of scale has multiple dimensions.Both the Fixed Effect model and the Quantile Regression model show that the impact of the level of APPO on the economies of scale is significantly positive,and it is easier for farmers with low-level economies of scale to upgrade their economies of scale through APPO.This indicates the positive significance of the promotion of outbound APPO in the group of farmers whose economies of scale or conditions are reduced.Under the control of other variables,based on the crop structure dimension,the impact of the APPO level of each crop production procedure on the AES level is significantly positive,and its impact degree is characterized by “rice > wheat > corn”.The influence degree of rice is much larger than that of wheat and corn,and the difference between wheat and corn is small.Based on the regional structure dimension,the level of APPO in the East has a positive impact on the economics of scale.The positive impact,while the influence effect in the West is not significant;based on the procedure attribute dimension,the APPO level of each production procedure attribute has a significant positive impact on the economies of scale level.The degree of influence shows the characteristics of “labor-intensive procedures > technology-intensive procedures > both labor-intensive and technology-intensive procedures”.And the degree of influence of labor-intensive procedures and technology-intensive procedures are not much different,but the influence degree of both is far greater than the influence degree of the combination of labor and technology.(5)APPO has a differential threshold effect on economies of scale.As far as the overall sample is concerned,the overall sample model has a threshold effect and has two thresholds.With the horizontal threshold of APPO,its positive impact on economies of scale shows an approximate inverted “V” characteristic.It can be seen that the level of APPO should be moderate,exceeding the level of moderate outsourcing.As for the 0.76 under the definition of this sample,its impact on agricultural production and its economies of scale will be reduced or even counterproductive.As far as the crop structure is concerned,the rice sample model has a threshold value.With the threshold value crossed,the positive effect of APPO will be strengthened and the magnitude is larger;the wheat sample model has a threshold value.With the leap of threshold,the positive effect of APPO in wheat production chain is not strong;the corn sample model XII has a threshold.With the threshold crossed,the positive effect of APPO in corn production will be switch from invalid to valid.From the perspective of regional structure,the eastern overall sample model has a threshold.With the threshold crossed,the positive effect of APPO in the eastern region will be significantly enhanced;the central overall sample model has a threshold,and with the threshold crossed,the positive effect of APPO in the central region began to appear;the western overall sample model did not have a threshold effect.(6)APPO promotes economies of scale through “six transmission mechanisms” and “five combination paths”.Based on the phased estimation of benchmark regression and quantile regression model,this paper validates the transmission mechanism of APPO to promote the realization of economies of scale from the six transmission variables,such as specialization of division of labor,learning ability,technological progress,specificity of material assets,disposal ability and transaction ability.The results show that APPO promotes the achievement of economies of scale.It has transmission mechanism of specialization effect,human capital effect,technology spillover effect,cost saving effect,resource allocation effect and complementary effect of economies of scale.At the same time,using fsQCA method to verify and screen out the “five combinatorial paths” to achieve economies of scale: First,AOS* ~ CA* ~ AS* ~ SC* LCA*TPR,in the absence of strong behavioral capacity,low asset specificity and large-scale as the core causality conditions,farmers can support high-level of APPO around the core causality conditions of high-tech progress.Peaceful and strong learning ability,with the help of external channels to make up for the external economies of scale,so as to achieve agricultural economies of scale.This is essentially the strong combination of technology spillover effect and human capital effect of APPO mentioned above on economies of scale.Secondly,AOS*CA* ~ RK* ~ SC* LCA,in the absence of large-scale causality as the core condition and low-risk as the auxiliary causality condition,the farmer's scale of operation is small and faces greater operational risks.At this time,the farmer can still strengthen learning ability through two core causality conditions: high-level of APPO and strong behavioral ability.Strong learning ability is a supplementary causality condition to obtain high level of economies of scale.This configuration reflects the resource allocation effect and learning effect of link service outsourcing.In fact,configuration A and B can also serve as a strong support for the theory that APPO promotes the AES,and “scale of land management is irrelevant to AES”.Thirdly,~ AOS*CA* AS* RK* SC* ~ LCA*~TPR,in the absence of high-tech progress as the core causality condition,high-level of APPO and strong learning ability as the auxiliary causality condition,farmers can still assist the low-risk auxiliary causality through three core causality conditions: strong behavior ability,low asset specificity and large-scale conditions to achieve economies of scale.Fourthly,AOS*CA* AS*SC*LCA*TPR,under the conditions of high APPO level,large-scale and strong learning ability as the core causality,and strong behavioral ability,low asset specificity and high-tech progress as the auxiliary causality conditions,it is easy to achieve a high level of agricultural economies of scale by balancing the internal and external resources of households.Fifthly,AOS* AS*RK,in the absence of strong learning ability as the core causality condition,farmers can also achieve the super-high-level of economies of scale through the core causality conditions of high APPO level and low asset specificity,with low risk as the auxiliary causality condition.2.Possible innovations(1)The theoretical framework of “service outsourcing – economies of division of labor-economies of scale” was introduced,and a useful attempt was made to reveal the mechanism of APPO to achieve economies of scale.Some new understandings may be formed in the process of analysis and interpretation.For example,based on the mathematical analysis of inframarginal analysis,it shows that the APPO realizes the internal logic of “economies of division of labor” within economies of scale,and the APPO expands the boundary of agricultural production and management through socialization of division of labor and marketization of services.While improving the AES through the “aggregate effect” of economies of scale in various production procedures,it also introduces external service economies of scale and enhances the entire AES by sharing the economies of division of labor.(2)Based on the structural perspective,the structural differences in the impact of APPO on the economies of scale in agricultural production links highlight the hierarchical and heterogeneous mechanisms of action.At the same time,it verifies the threshold effects of APPO on economies of scale,and further expands the mechanism analysis in the existing literature,and identifies the dynamics of the impact process of APPO on the economies of scale.The higher the level of APPO,may not be the better.Its promotion of economies of scale often needs to cross a certain threshold or be in a certain level to be effective,fully embodying the appropriateness of the APPO and the dynamics of the implementation of economies of scale.(3)This paper attempts to introduce the frontier research method of sociology and case study,qualitative comparative analysis method(QCA),into the complex causality study of service outsourcing and economies of scale in agricultural production process,embodying the intersection of disciplines and breakthroughs and new ideas in the application of methods.Traditional econometric analysis is limited to the single model to accurately verify the significance of independent variables on large samples,and can not effectively explain the influence of factor combinations or even difficult to deal with the interaction of three or more variables.QCA methods make up for the above thinking and operational defects.To verify the impact of multi-factor combination and its interaction on AES,it can reflect the complex and causal relationship of reality,and it is closer to the objective economic reality,and expands the dimension and depth of mechanism discussion.Meanwhile,the application of the new method brings new perspective collisions.Through the specific fsQCA method,five equivalent combination paths of the realization and promotion of AES under the conditions of APPO is found,which further enriches the way of understanding the implementation of AES. |
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