Research On China's Soybean International Trade And Its Influencing Factors

Since China's accession to the WTO,China's national strength has developed rapidly and made great achievements.In contrast,since the new president trump took office,the United States has repeatedly criticized China,one of the reasons is that China has improper trade behavior,and requires renegotiation of bilateral trade agreements.As the main imported agricultural products in China,soybean imports have been increasing since China's accession to the WTO,which plays an important role in the negotiation of trade agreements.This paper analyzes China's soybean trade from the perspective of global soybean trade.In the global soybean trade,although China imports the vast majority of soybeans,the United States,Brazil,Argentina,China and other countries produce the vast majority of soybeans,the United States is in a dominant position.This dominant position is not only reflected in seed,production,trade,processing and other aspects,but also in the formulation of financial,subsidy and trade rules.All in all,these reflect the strong strength of the United States and the desire of the United States to seek further dominance.Therefore,the study of China's soybean trade is inseparable from this big environment.First of all,this paper combs the theory of trade,from the classical trade theory,new classical trade theory,gravity model,trade measures,standard trade model,new trade theory,etc.through which we can have a systematic understanding of the development of international trade theory and practice.Then,the world soybean and its products are simply described from seed,production,processing,trade,circulation and consumption.At last,the international trade of soybean in China is quantified by Lawrence index,import concentration index,Herfindal index,GL index,bruekhart index and HIT index.The research shows that from seed,production,processing,trade and other aspects,we not only have no advantage in the world,but also have no obvious advantage at home;China's soybean import has reached a new high year by year.Because there are many factors that affect trade,and they can be divided into quantifiable and non quantifiable,this paper uses panel data to analyze the quantifiable part,and draws some basic conclusions in chapter 4.The results show that GDP and population,per capita soybean consumption,exchange rate,soybean price difference at home and abroad,and distance have a significant impact on soybean trade,in which GDP has a positive impact on soybean trade,distance has aninverse relationship with soybean trade,and the return result of exchange rate is positive,which indicates that RMB appreciation is favorable for soybean import,inflation rate is favorable for soybean trade.The difference between the market price of soybean in China and that of the three countries in America has no significant effect on the soybean trade.The population has a negative effect on the soybean trade.The per capita soybean consumption has a negative effect on the soybean trade.Non quantifiable factors also have a very important impact on the international trade of soybeans.Which factors have a very important impact? This should be combined with China's trade environment.China's trade environment is the international trade under the international system led by the United States.The policy orientation of the United States has an important impact on the international trade of China's soybeans.The goal of American agricultural policy is to dominate the trade of agricultural products,improve labor productivity,provide appropriate subsidies and improve the income of farmers,Promote social welfare.Therefore,the follow-up writing of this paper will study the impact on China 's soybean trade according to this directivity.Price is the core variable of economy.The price determines the flow of resources,which is also a means of dominating trade in the United States.Therefore,chapter five studies the pricing power of soybean.The following innovative formulas are proposed in this chapter:Futures price = market price + average profit of middleman + manipulation profit +random fluctuation error Then:futures price = market price *(1 + average profit rate of middleman)+ manipulation profit + random fluctuation errorWe set the average profit margin of middlemen here to be constant,about equal to 10%,because according to the basic principles of economics,if an industry keeps excess profits for a long time,then the continuous capital will enter the industry to obtain excess profits.If an industry cannot obtain average profits or losses for a long time,then there will be a continuous withdrawal of manufacturers from the industry,and finally the profit rate of this industry must be the average profit rate.At the same time,the agricultural product market is a fully competitive market,and the market price of soybean is the equilibrium price in the fully competitive market.So theoretically,the CBOT price of soybean should also be balanced,which conforms tothe general economic law.Through the test,we can find that the soybean CBOT futures price is manipulated.At the same time,this paper designs two indexes: the futures cost(double)price plus difference and the futures market price difference to judge the price manipulation behavior of the futures market.In the sixth chapter,the total factor productivity of soybean in China and the United States is measured,and the main soybean provinces in China are analyzed by DEA method.The research shows that the growth rate of TFPG in China has been declining since the reform and opening up,and the growth rate of TFPG in the United States has been increasing in a period of 3-4 years.By analyzing the management inefficiency and scale efficiency of soybean in different provinces of China,it can be concluded that there are great differences among different parts of China.In the seventh chapter of the research on Sino US soybean agricultural support policy,the research shows that China's overall support for agriculture does not exceed the WTO ceiling of China's commitment,but it has been very close to the ceiling;the U.S.support for soybeans has not exceeded the WTO ceiling of the U.S.commitment since 2004;for soybeans,the large amount of subsidies provided by the Chinese government for soybeans does not increase soybean production Obviously.The eighth chapter studies the welfare effect of China's soybean trade.The research shows that the long-term and short-term welfare fluctuation of soybean trade is very obvious,but the total welfare is positive.China's import of soybeans can always bring welfare improvements to China.The overall research of this paper shows that China's soybean trade is conducted under the international order led by the United States since the Second World War.The United States has gained advantages by signing trade agreements with China,and has not only gained excess profits for a long time by manipulating pricing power,but also greatly reduced subsidies,so as to obtain greater benefits.For China,we should try our best to participate in the futures market with pricing power under the current framework,combining with the goal of soybean supply safety and cost minimization;according to the pricing theory,we should strive to maximize the use of WTO rules to seek the maximum amount of subsidies,while in China,we should seek the most efficient amount of subsidies;because of the high concentration of soybean imports in China,we should try our best to forecast and prevent the supply risk.