The Influence Of Trade Frictions Between China And The United States On Soybean Trade

The United States is an important soybean exporting country in the world,and has a full say in the world food market.As the largest soybean importing country in the world,China's every move is enough to affect the soybean trading system.The soybean trade between China and the United States has an important significance and role in the global soybean trading market.At present,the soybean trade dependency between the two countries is very close,but in 2018,with the overall escalation of trade friction between China and the United States,in order to take countermeasures,China imposed a 25%tariff on imported soybeans from the United States,making the China and the US trade war officially launched.At the same time of trade frictions upgrading,China's soybean foreign trade has been seriously affected,and the number of soybean trade between China and the United States has declined significantly.In order to more accurately analyze the impact mechanism and degree of Sino-U.S.trade friction upgrading on China's soybean trade,this paper mainly uses the comparative advantage theory and free trade theory as the theoretical basis to analyze the price fluctuation of China's soybean in the international market environment.First of all,combined with the basic situation of the international soybean trade pattern,using the world soybean trade data to form a global soybean trade network diagram,and finally concluded that the transportation cost is an important basis for the choice of soybean trade objects among countries.Then it analyzes the characteristics of China's soybean trade,and explains why China's soybean trade is not dominant in the global trade market from three aspects:low self-sufficiency rate of domestic soybean,heavy dependence on imports and severe impact of international market prices.Then,based on the analysis of the current situation of China's soybean trade under the background of US-China Trade War upgrading,the paper summarizes the impact mechanism of trade frictions on China's soybean prices.It is mainly divided into economic,trade and political factors.The economic factors include:the level of China's foreign trade and economic development,the need to change the pattern of China's soybean trade;the trade factors include:tariff,exchange rate and other trade barriers,international transport costs,and Trump's political needs.After that,using regression model,it is clear that US-China Trade War upgrading will have an impact on China's soybean prices,and the impact mechanism is analyzed systematically,emphasizing the impact of exchange rate as the main means of impact on China's soybean prices.Finally,the analysis shows that the trade war will affect the soybean market price to a certain extent,but the impact is limited.We can reduce the loss of soybean industry development through corresponding policies.After defining the influence mechanism and degree,from the perspective of national food security strategy and international market of interconnection,this paper analyzes the development prospect of soybean trade in China,and puts forward corresponding development strategies from the three levels of government,society and enterprise individuals,which provides a feasible plan for the future development of soybean industry in China.