Economic factors in the prediction of recidivism

This dissertation examines the impact of economic variables on recidivism and discusses the implications for criminal justice policy. The definition, measurement, and policy uses of recidivism rates are discussed and the importance of reducing recidivism is emphasized through a discussion of the costs of crime and, in particular, criminal justice spending in Utah. International comparisons of recidivism, incarceration, and crime rates are made between the United States and 16 countries in order to evaluate where the United States stands relative to other countries.An analysis of parolees in Utah confirms that economic variables are strong predictors of recidivism. Recidivism is modeled from the Utah parolee data using the techniques of classical linear regression, Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Classification and Regression Tree methodology. In all of the models, the economic variables of employment status, the payment of restitution, and the payment of child support are among the strongest predictors of recidivism.The results of the Utah parolee data analysis have important implications for criminal justice policy. The costs and benefits of policies regarding employment, restitution payments, and child support payments are examined using the Utah parolee data. The results suggest that by improving the ability of released prisoners to find employment, eliminating restitution payments, and alleviating the burden of child support payments corrections costs can be reduced significantly. The importance of these results for criminal justice policy, both in terms of lower corrections costs and the successful reintegration of offenders into society, underscores the need for further research. This study concludes with a consideration of several topics for future research suggested by the Utah parolee data.Past recidivism studies have tended to focus on sociological or noneconomic variables instead of economic variables. While some noneconomic variables may have predictive value, they are ultimately unimportant for policy because they are unchangeable. In contrast, economic variables reflect behavioral responses to incentives and disincentives. Policies designed to change the structure of incentives that individuals face can influence their behavior. Thus, if economic variables are important determinants of recidivism, these variables should be of central concern to the formation of criminal justice policy.