| Private forests in the southeastern U.S. have a high potential to produce forest biomass that can be utilized to produce cellulosic ethanol or generate electricity. This study analyzes economy-wide impacts of emerging bioenergy policies in the southeastern U.S. A computable general equilibrium approach is used to achieve the task. There are three major components in this dissertation. First, the study classifies southeastern states into homogenous groups based on potential determinants using a cluster analysis. The study then identifies key factors that influence the formulation or adoption of forest bioenergy policies in the southeastern region. Results suggests that Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina are likely to adopt regulatory mechanisms for bioenergy; Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee are found to be more amenable for incentive-based bioenergy policies; and, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia are shown to be more suitable for support-based bioenergy policies.;Second, this research examines the impacts of a series of potential forest bioenergy policy scenarios in the Southeastern U.S. The study applies a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impacts on welfare and on all sectors of the economy. The policy scenarios include: displacing 1% of conventional electric power production with forest biomass based electric power; displacing 1% of conventional liquid fuel with cellulosic ethanol; a ;Third, the static CGE model was extended to a recursive dynamic model to forecast the impacts of policy scenarios until 2025. This dynamic model can shed light on the resulting economic transition path through time. Results indicate that the logging sector expands but other conventional forest products sectors contract in response to all policy scenarios since the bioenergy market creates an additional demand for forest biomass. The results also show that conventional energy sectors contract in all scenarios. The land for logging increases in the first couple years, leading to a contraction in agricultural land. Labor demand, welfare, and gross regional product decrease when a portion of conventional energy is substituted with forest biomass. Nevertheless, providing incentives and technological progress for forest bioenergy may generate new market opportunities for forest biomass and increase the demand for forest bioenergy resulting in overall positive outcomes for the economy. |
