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Essays on decision theory

Posted on:2009-07-31Degree:Ph.DType:Dissertation
University:Princeton UniversityCandidate:Dillenberger, DavidFull Text:PDF
GTID:1449390005460923Subject:Economics
Abstract/Summary:
The first chapter, "Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior", is motivated by experimental evidence that suggests that individuals are more risk averse when they perceive risk gradually. We address these findings by studying a decision maker (DM) who has recursive preferences over compound lotteries and who cares about the way uncertainty is resolved over time. DM has preferences for one-shot resolution of uncertainty if he always prefers any compound lottery to be resolved in a single stage. We establish an equivalence between dynamic preferences for one-shot resolution of uncertainty and static preferences that are identified with the behavior observed in Allais-type experiments. The implications of this equivalence on preferences over information systems are examined. We define the gradual resolution premium and demonstrate its magnifying effect when combined with the usual risk premium. In an intertemporal context, preferences for one-shot resolution of uncertainty capture narrow framing.;In the second chapter, "Ashamed to be Selfish" (jointly written with Philipp Sadowski), we study a two-stage choice problem, where alternatives are allocations between the decision maker (DM) and a passive recipient. The recipient observes choice behavior in stage two, while stage one choice is unobserved. Choosing selfishly in stage two, in the face of a fairer available alternative, may inflict shame on DM. DM has preferences over sets of alternatives that represent period two choices. We axiomatize a representation that identifies DM's selfish ranking, her norm of fairness and shame. Altruism is the most prominent motive that can explain non-selfish choice. We identify a condition under which shame to be selfish can mimic altruism, when only stage-two choice is observed by the experimenter. An additional condition implies that the norm of fairness can be characterized as the Nash solution of a bargaining game induced by the second-stage choice problem. The representation is generalized to allow for finitely many recipients and applied to explain a social decision maker's incentive for obfuscation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Preferences for one-shot resolution, Decision, Uncertainty
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