| Electronic waste (e-waste) recycling systems, similar to other waste, exhibit dynamic behavior, ultimately as a function of technology adoption and the adoption of recycling as an end-of-life option. Models of the dynamics of e-waste materials flows can be the basis for a wide range of assessments such as material flow analysis (MFA) and cost-value analysis (CVA). With e-waste being a rapidly growing waste stream, there is a great need to understand its composition and related environmental and economic issues. The objective of this research is to develop a framework to investigate the application of forecasting models to regional e-waste materials flows under technological change and changes in the adoption of recycling as an end-of-life option.;The framework is demonstrated in an investigation of waste monitors (cathode ray tubes and liquid crystal displays) retired in King County, Washington. The study forecasts both monitor sales, retirements and collections using the well-established Bass Diffusion Model and ultimately combines these data with a characterization of materials to estimate materials flows. The study also compares the model with alternative forecasting models including the logistics function, Weibull distribution and an EPA-developed material model. The models investigated provided forecasts with varying performance in matching actual data. As such, recommendations are made for the interpretation of existing studies employing forecasting and for the use of forecasting in future e-waste research. |
