Study On The Current Status Of MSW Disposal And Delivering Quantity Forecasting In Our Country

With the accelerating proceeding of urbanization and the developing of city economy, municipal solid waste delivering quantity also grow with each passing day. However some infrastructure construction of garbage disposal cannot meet the needs of economic development, many cities were surrounded by garbage. If it goes on like this, it will not only cause serious pollution of the environment and hinder economic growth, but also create a threat to the residents of body. In recent year, the government takes more and more attention to the problem of municipal solid waste, increasing investment for the purchase and improvement of the basic equipment, and striving to make the solid waste completely innocent treatment. Therefore, In order to construct development environment which keeps harmonious、stable and healthy, the accurate prediction of the municipal solid waste delivering quantity is especially important.By analyzing disposal situation of municipal solid waste, the thesis pointed out the existing problems, and compared with developed country about the disposal method. On the other hand, the thesis qualitatively analyses the main factors which affect municipal solid waste delivering quantity, and selects ten factors from it. For the data of solid waste and the main factors from the year 1995 to 2013, using the mothed of grey correlation analysis get the relevant four factors associated with municipal solid waste delivering quantity.The thesis check the prediction accuracy of three models that consisted of the stepwise regression model, exponential smoothing model, GM(1,1) for municipal solid waste delivering quantity from the year 1995 to 2013, and forecast solid waste in next decade. Based on three single prediction models, according to the principle of least error square and square root, construct combination forecasting model. By comparing prediction accuracy to the several models, shows that combination model obviously superior to the single model. It combines the advantages of each single model, and precisely forecast municipal solid waste delivering quantity.The prediction of combination model shows that the municipal solid waste delivering quantity will reach 227.1483 million tons, maintain stable growth from the year 2014 to 2023, increase more than 4.74 million tons every year and the average annual growth rate will reach 2.79%.The research suggests that the combination forecasting of variable weight have good precision during the prediction of municipal solid waste delivering quantity. The prediction conclusion is toke as the basis that government makes disposal policy about municipal.