| All land use regulation virtually takes place at the municipal level: city, village or town government in New York State. While zoning is often instituted to screen out incompatible uses, some newer zoning ordinances take a proactive approach to protect certain forms of open space (OS), such as wetlands, valued landscape, or scenic vistas which are defined as green open space (GOS) in this study.;In this study, to provide valuable information to local municipalities, three methods are used: satellite imagery analysis, scenario analysis, and GIS spatial modeling. Satellite imagery analysis is used to find the relationship between population change and land cover change; GOS, OS and Developed (DEV). The findings are applied to build three possible land use scenarios that are built with population change and potential development factors, and a GOS spatial model is built with these scenarios. The most important finding from satellite imagery analysis is 'the GOS to OS conversion trend' and this trend can explain why municipalities lose only a small area of OS when municipalities significantly lose population. Results of GOS spatial modeling provides how much GOS/OS municipalities would lose because of future development based on three land use scenarios.;In the process of GOS spatial modeling, the green open space spectrum (GOSS) is developed as a standardized comparison tool and the GOSS application is used to protect GOS. As a result, the strongest GOSS application with the 'Community revitalization scenario' greatly limits available lands for future development. On the other hand, the 'Hyper-growth scenario' and 'Shrinking community scenario' application results in massive GOS loss due to development. Results of the 'Hyper-growth scenario' and 'Shrinking community scenario' application were similar, but the cause of GOS loss was different. Land loss of the 'Hyper-growth scenario' case was directly influenced by development, but GOS loss of the 'Shrinking community scenario' case was caused by the GOS to OS conversion trend. The 'Shrinking community scenario' case also has higher parcel numbers or very close to 'Hyper-growth scenario', so it is possible to assume that a shrinking community will lose less OS but have a fragmentation issue. The strength of GOSS application also seems to be related with the number of parcels: fragmentation, therefore, decision makers and planners have to carefully consider fragmentation issues when they apply a stronger GOSS level.;Key words: Conservation, Development, GIS, Green Open Space, Green open space spectrum, Land cover, Land use, Open Space, Scenario Analysis, Spatial Modeling. |
