| The first chapter of this dissertation is about the unintended consequences of institutional reform. Over fifty developing countries have attempted to reduce smuggling by implementing preshipment inspection (PSI) programs. PSI is not associated with lower overall smuggling rates in two settings: in a cross-country panel, and during the program's staggered implementation in the Philippines. Theoretically, smuggling rates need not fall—and could even rise—if increased enforcement targets just a subset of smuggling methods. In the context of a natural experiment within the Philippine PSI program, I find that shipments subject to PSI shifted to alternative methods of avoiding import duties, completely offsetting the initial benefit from removing the exemptions.; The remainder of this dissertation considers international labor migration. The second chapter examines how domestic and foreign economic shocks affect the departure and return of Filipino workers. I find that negative domestic shocks (due to unusual rainfall) make households less likely to send members overseas for work. In addition, I exploit shocks to foreign exchange rates generated by the Asian financial crisis, and find that Philippine household members working in countries experiencing greater exchange rate improvements were less likely to return home. The impact of exchange rates on return behavior is U-shaped in time overseas: workers overseas for the shortest and longest periods respond more than those away for intermediate periods. These findings are consistent with an intertemporal model of migration with fixed migration costs, liquidity constraints, and learning about workers' disutility from overseas work.; The third chapter uses a novel approach to shed light on the impact of remittances on child human capital in the Philippines. Overseas Filipino workers send remittances home from many foreign countries, so exchange rate fluctuations due to the 1997 Asian financial crisis generated large, heterogeneous shocks to the incomes of these workers' origin households. I find that more favorable exchange rate shocks led to increases in remittance receipts, increases in child schooling, and declines in child labor. |
