| The frequent natural disasters and famines in Qing China caused the peasant uprisings to be more frequent than in the past and led to the emergence of the largest and far-reaching Taiping Rebellion in history.This dissertation explores as comprehensively as possible every cause of peasant uprisings,which include unusual temperatures,natural disasters,population or reproductive rates,rice prices,famines,religions,ethnicity,and analyses the effect of relief,maize and sweet potato on peasant uprising.However,due to lack of data,it is impossible to explore the issue of official corruption.At the same time,this dissertation reexamines some existing theoretical analyzes of climate shocks and population pressure through statistical analysis and regression models,and find out the conclusions that are debatable.Therefore,the conclusions of this dissertation can provide some inspiration which is used in contemporary disaster relief and state governance.So,this study has a certain theoretical and practical significance.Temperature chilling is considered to be an important factor in changing dynasties.In this dissertation,climate shock is taken as an entry point to gradually dig out the factors that affect the peasant uprising.This dissertation focuses on the theoretical and empirical analysis of the peasant uprising from the perspectives of natural disasters,relief and population pressure.The main body of research is divided into four parts.First,a theoretical model of population and food production for famine and uprising is established,and the dynamic balance of natural disasters and disaster relief is discussed.Second,a statistical description of the peasant uprising dataset was made,and the peasant uprisings' time distribution,spatial distribution,religious situation,participation of ethnic minorities,the duration of uprising,the result of the uprising and other information were obtained.At the same time,the dissertation analyzes the trend of natural disasters,relief and population respectively,and compares the trend of peasant wars with the direct analysis of the relationship between natural disasters,relief,population and peasant wars.Third,the dissertation constructs the transmission path from abnormal temperature or population growth rate to peasant uprisings,and quantitatively tests the path and calculates the percentage of each situation at each level.Fourth,the dissertation examines the impact of the New World crop of corn and sweet potato on peasant wars in the Qing dynasty,if so-called "poor food" shortages like maize and sweet potatoes could aggravate peasant uprisings even if suff-icient staple foods,such as rice and wheat.This dissertation has the following main conclusions:(1)In Qing Dynasty,the province with the largest number(20 times)of peasant wars was Hubei and the area with the largest number(56 times)of peasant wars was East China.The year with the largest number(13 times)of peasant wars was in 1853.The“God Worship"is the most influential religion,and there were 61 times peasant wars launched by“God Worship".In the wars waged by ethnic minorities,the Hui nationality launched the peasant wars for the largest number of times,for a total of 12 times.Peasant wars lasted for 3 months to a year is the most frequent situation with 45 times.In a total of 196 peasant wars,the peasant army won 43 victories,36 of which made use of religions.(2)Natural disasters have two peaks(1736-1765,1832-1849),which do not coincide with the three peaks of the peasant war(1644-1664,1795-1802,1851-1867).The population growth rate has three negative growth periods(1676-1681,1795-1797,1853-1870)and the last two negative growth periods coincide with the last two peaks of the peasant war.There are eight cold periods of temperature,which coincide with the first peak of the peasant war in the early Qing Dynasty.The rice price index has three peaks(1644-1655,1867-1871 and 1886-1911)and the first two peaks basically coincide with the first and third peaks of the peasant war.Disaster relief has four peaks(1736-1765,1770-1795,1822-1849,1876-1911)and famine relief has four peaks(1646-1660,1740-1758,1822-1851,1874-1911),which do not coincide with the three peak of the peasant war.(3)The direct cause of peasant uprisings is famine,and the conclusion is robust.Abnormal temperature,natural disasters,population or reproduction rate,rice price,religion and ethnic group can only play an indirect role.Relief can significantly reduce the number of peasant uprisings.During Qing Dynasty,the nation capacity was strongest during the reign of Emperor Qianlong,in which relief effort was largest and the peasant uprisings were rare.The path from the abnormal temperature to the peasant uprising is“abnormal temperature?frequent disasters? rice prices rise? frequent famine? uprising".The transmission path from the beginning to the final response,the percentage of each layer is decaying,indicating that it is easier to control the last layer of the system.In other words,it is easier to control the social system than the economic system,and it is easier to control the economic system than the natural system.(4)Through the empirical test,some existing theory is questionable.First of all,natural disasters are not so appalling in the current theoretical analysis,and the lag effect is not robust.What is more,in most cases,the large population and high rate of population reproduction are not the root cause of the peasant uprising.Only the pressure of population constitutes a factor of social instability.Least but not least,the excessive price of rice is also considered as one of the major incentives for the peasant uprising,but the output of corn and sweet potato is one of the factors that affect the peasant uprising.The role of corn and sweet potato are similar,both in the early and mid Qing Dynasty curbed peasant uprising,but during the reign of Emperor Xianfeng exacerbated the peasant uprising.At the same time,the influence of agricultural technology and regulation in the Qing Dynasty on the peasant wars was not so direct and obvious,and took a long time to manifest. |
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