Conditional Deterrence: Microeconomic Analysis of War Initiation Mechanism

This paper aims to provide an integrated deterrence structure that defines conditions for the success and failure of nuclear deterrence incorporating proliferation. The conditional deterrence model presented is applied to global and regional interactions driven by nuclear proliferation, and extended to anticipated challenges that may be generated by the acquisition of nuclear capabilities by rogue states or terrorists. The key elements of my assessment include relative capabilities, risk propensity associated with the relative assessment of the status quo, and physical exposure to attack or retaliation. I start with a review of existing work to show the differences between my approach and previous efforts, and then generalize insights to all deterrence environments.