Military spending in developing countries: Changing contexts, burdens, economies and data sets

Topically, this dissertation is about military spending, the economic impacts of military spending, and the policy implications for developing countries. This work begins with a review of relevant socio-economic theory. It summarizes the literature on military spending, focusing on the quantitative studies conducted between the mid-1970s and the present time. The state of knowledge at this point is an unresolved debate between two schools of thought: the military as modernizers and the opportunity cost perspective. The research question for this work is: can we entrust our policy decisions to the results of these studies—to either school of thought—based on the available data? A series of country profiles reveals the potential for as much as 24% error in the military spending data.; The dissertation then systematically evaluates military burden rates as reported by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Depending on how a researcher harvests data from either ACDA or SIPRI publications, military burden rates may be reported—literally—as going up, or going down. A sensitivity analysis based on an existing model reveals that previous results are extremely fragile (responsive to as little as 5% error). In short, the data sets are not valid and reliable. This analysis suggests that military service and military modernization cannot be dismissed in the search for viable development options—not based on the available data.