| Can technological change and economic liberalization erode the control of an authoritarian government? Can market reform lead to political reform? This dissertation reaches some conclusions about the telecommunications services market in China that respond to these questions. First, partial liberalization of the telecommunications market in the last fifteen years increased the number of actors in the industry, diluting the state's control. On the other hand, government interests in controlling information that flows over these networks resulted in limited entry into the market, curtailing competition and preserving substantial state control. Second, the growth of technologically new services, despite government prohibitions, demonstrates how tenuous the state's regulatory authority is. Among firms, only the politically-connected benefit. Small firms, even if they are technology pioneers, remain marginal without political backing. Third, the state's authority is weak because its most important decisions are driven by ideology rather than reflecting actual market conditions. Consequently, regulation fails to take into account the enormous incentives for firms and consumers that do not to comply with the rules.; The literature on the impact of economic reform on political reform since China began economic reforms in the 1980's primarily relies on a rising middle class that demands more voice as the key to democratization. Instead, this dissertation suggests that a more fruitful line of inquiry may be to investigate those areas where political reform would enhance the goals of the Chinese state. In telecommunications service policy, economic reform and technological change has created an environment where the lack of consultative, pluralistic policy-making weakens the state's authority. Whether the Chinese state, in these circumstances, will accept political reform remains to be seen. However, developments in other areas, such as rural village elections, suggest that the Chinese state can accept political reform when it supports the state's goals.; This dissertation is organized around six major telecommunications policy decisions: policy-making structure, new market entry, foreign investment, interconnection policy, tariff policy, and new technologies---Internet Protocol telephony and "Little Smart" mobile service. |
