| Survey data show that the obesity rate in the United States increased by no more than 20% between 1960 and 1980 but more than doubled between 1980 and 2000. Previous studies have pointed to technological change that may have raised the cost of remaining slim, but they cannot account for the acceleration in the growth of obesity within the last two decades. Given that body weight is a strong predictor for the likelihood of marriage, this paper examines how the operation of marriage markets may modify the effect of exogenous increases in the cost of remaining slim on obesity prevalence. A model is presented in which pre-marital investments raise candidates' productivity in marital unions and thus their appeal to prospective partners. As a result, the marriage market rewards participants with more sought-after attributes by raising their marriage probability, their share of the marriage surplus, and the size of the marriage surplus itself. At the same time, each candidate's investment affects competitors' marriage probabilities and surplus shares. It is shown that, at low levels of the cost of remaining slim, marriage markets will dampen or even mute entirely the effect on obesity rates of an increase in the cost of remaining slim. At higher levels, the converse holds: each participant's decision to gain weight raises the marriage prospects of obese competitors and thereby reinforces the initial positive effect on obesity rates of an increase in the cost of remaining slim. |
