| Problem. Construct a methodology to improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction in International Relations.;Substance. A weakness in international relations at its current stage of development as a science is its paucity of useful prediction techniques. The young science of International Relations typically produces strong predictions which are weakly tied to theories (often associated with Area Studies) or weak predictions tied well to theories but which do not correspond strongly to the real world. This work provides a methodology for making predictions more useful and more accurate.;The paper constructs a methodology---the "Culture Chart"---which facilitates the systematic analysis and classification of the patterns of cultural values and biases which tend to influence international decision makers who are raised within an identifiable culture. Since rational decisions consist of choices among value-ranked alternatives, to know which alternatives carry positive or negative cultural biases will allow us to exclude unlikely choices and give priority to likely choices in predicting choice behavior.;This methodology first requires the observer to identify which culture, within the international actor, has the greatest influence on the decision. A culture is not coterminous with a nation-state. A culture is a social group which holds in common certain values and transmits these values to its children informally and early. These values, being unexamined, have a permanent influence on perceptions, biases, and actions. This influence varies by individual, culture, and issue but can be appropriately weighted.;This methodology relies on easily observable public behavior to classify cultures, and, since the values permeate a culture, applies those classifications equally to non-public international decision-making.;The four values selected for the methodology---Proper Social Behavior, Self-Other Identity, Control (Cause-Effect), and Violence---are arranged in continua, with end points described. The Culture Chart reduces uncertainty in prediction through defining the position of a culture along one or (with even greater utility) several value continua.;Significantly, because the values used are explicit and defined, the method provides a means of learning from and correcting errors. |
