International linkages and multilateral lending in the post-communist region

The focus of the dissertation is the influence of international linkages on the lending decisions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to the post-communist states between 1992 and 2007. The central question is to analyze the role of international linkages in aid allocation. Most cross-national studies do not make a clear distinction between aid to developing countries and aid to the post-communist states---states that are considerably more developed than the standard aid recipient but states that also face distinctive challenges of political and economic transition from a command economy and a one-party authoritarian regime. Moreover, the newly emergent post-communist states, and particularly Russia as the Soviet successor state, represent a novel geopolitical challenge. The geopolitical considerations attached to post-communist stability by the United States and Western Europe is an additional factor that may affect aid allocation. Thus it should not be assumed without empirical investigation that these distinctive cases present the lending institutions with the same considerations in aid allocation that would apply to the developing world. While the IMF and World Bank have been extensively studied, the EBRD---a regional bank explicitly established as a "transition bank" rather than a "development bank"---has not. Thus a primary concern of this study is how EBRD aid allocation may differ from that of the IMF and World Bank in the post-communist region.;Using a multi-method research design, I employ a regression analysis along with qualitative case studies. I start with a regression analysis in which I use the log transformations of the outcome variable lending from the IMF, World Bank and EBRD and the continuous explanatory variables to identify explanatory variables hypothesized to predict aid levels. The explanatory variables are: economic need, western connections, past relations with the Bretton Woods institutions, European Union or Commonwealth of Independent States membership, level of democracy, government stability and ethnic conflict. I find that international linkages, particularly as measured by trade ties, are influential in aid allocation from the IMF, World Bank and EBRD in the post-communist region. In addition, I chose Poland, Turkmenistan and Russia as the three case studies to understand the temporal dynamics of aid allocation and the role of international linkages in the relationship between domestic policy-makers and the international financial institutions. I chose Poland and Russia as high-level aid recipients while Turkmenistan is a low-level aid recipient. The three case studies also have varying degree of integration with the international community with Poland as a high level integration case, Turkmenistan as a low level integration case and Russia in an intermediate position. Within the case study analysis, I found that government stability and policy continuity are important determinants of Polish, Turkmen and Russian relations with the international financial institutions.