| This project adds a new dimension to the study of foreign policy decision-making by means of a nuanced method of considering an actor's perspective on the future. In the process of weighing alternative actions in the area of foreign policy, one of the most important factors influencing a policy choice is the decision maker's view of time, in particular the way that perception informs the future. I argue that the distance into the future a leader considers has a significant impact on how options are weighed, and outcomes valued.;Many studies in Political Science and International Relations have looked at the role of time, particularly the role of the past through the use of analogy and historical awareness. Other works in a number of disciplines, namely Prospect Theory and Construal Theory, have considered how the future is viewed, and what psychological filters have an impact on considering that future. This dissertation builds upon that work by looking at the future as a series of specific horizons, ranging from the immediate to the extremely long term. By contrasting the different perspectives that can be found in the thoughts and words of policy makers, significant differences emerge that greatly add to our understanding of the decision making process.;This 'time horizon' approach is applied to two of the most defining incidents in contemporary US-China relations. The Taiwan Straits Missile Crises of 1995-6 and China's admission into the World Trade Organization over the course of the late 1990s are both cases of particular significance in a specific facet of 'hard power'; the Straits Crisis has defined the military issues between the two powers, while the entrance into the WTO was primarily in the economic realm. Each situation is a fairly high-tension point of interaction between the US and the PRC, with consequences stretching into the future. Because these moments of interaction had immediate implications as well as a variety of longer term aspects, they are conducive to our methodological approach. The study has shown some compelling results that indicate that the choice of time horizon can play a significant role in policy outcomes. In addition, the time horizon method can offer increased depth and sensitivity to a wide variety of methodological approaches. |
