'The money primary' in the early presidential nomination process: Fund-raising and media coverage as factors in candidate viability

The early presidential nomination campaign, including the pre-candidacy and early candidacy phases and especially “the money primary,” is the focus of this study. This money primary is examined as a critical period in defining the field of viable candidates that emerges before the primary and caucus process begins. The early presidential nomination campaigns of 1988 and 2000—the two all non-incumbent elections of the post-reform era—are utilized as case studies. Data on campaign fund-raising available at the Federal Election Commission comprise an important part of this analysis. Data on media coverage of campaign fund-raising during the period leading up to the caucus and primary schedule provide a further dimension to the analysis.; This study confirms the pivotal importance of money in presidential candidate survival, viability, and success. The extent of a potential candidate's success in fund-raising at the pre-candidacy phase is found to be associated with the candidate moving from pre-candidacy to announced candidacy and from simply survival to viability. Fund-raising success during the early candidacy phase, and the extent to which a candidate develops momentum in fund-raising, also are found to be associated with candidate survival, viability and success.; A second dimension to the money primary examined in this study is media coverage of campaign fund-raising. The extent to which a candidate receives coverage of successful fund-raising, whether the orientation of this coverage is positive or negative, and whether horse race coverage of candidate fund-raising compares the candidate favorably or unfavorably with other candidates, all are found to be associated with candidate viability.; In sum, this study confirms the pivotal importance of the money primary in the early presidential nomination campaign. Both fund-raising success and media coverage of fund-raising success during the pre-candidacy and early candidacy phases are found to be associated with candidate viability once the formal nomination process begins. That fund-raising and the money and media attention that result are such critical resources suggest the advent of yet a new period in the ever evolving system of presidential selection, a period that in effect constitutes an “unreformed post-reform era” in the modern presidential nomination process.