Poland's security dilemma between Germany and Russia again: Bandwagoning and balancing in foreign policy from 1989 to 1993

This dissertation examines whether post-Communist Poland exhibited bandwagoning more than balancing or aggressive alignment toward unifying Germany and emerging post-Communist Russia from 1989 to 1993. To answer this question, the dissertation uses the rapidly changing Cold War security system in Central Europe as the independent variable. For the dependent variable, the dissertation employs Poland and foreign policy developed, crafted, and promulgated by its first post-Communist Foreign Minister, Krzysztof Skubiszewski. Specifically, cooperative rather than competitive bandwagoning exists when a weaker state aligns itself to a stronger state or coalition to gain a reward by responding to an opportunity, not necessarily by trying to achieve greater security because of a direct threat or to reduce security of other states. Balancing results when a state attempts to ally with another state or coalition against a perceived threat. Aggression underscores threatening behavior, often leading to war, and defines the opposite of bandwagoning and balancing.; To determine that Skubiszewski bandwagoned more than balanced the direction of Poland's diplomacy, the dissertation explores the impact of the Cold War's systemic disintegration on the perceptions and realities he saw around Central Europe, and how he formulated Poland's national interests and regional role. By analyzing how Poland's neighbors affected Warsaw's diplomacy and how Skubiszewski responded by aligning Poland toward Bonn, Moscow, Kiev, Minsk, Vilnius, Prague, Budapest, and Brussels (NATO and the EC), the dissertation reveals that Poland dealt pragmatically with its historic security dilemma between Germany and Russia.; Indeed, the dissertation demonstrates that, during the four Solidarnosc-led governments in which he served, Skubiszewski aligned Poland with stronger neighboring states to create opportunities and gain rewards rather than appease threats. By not balancing or threatening Poland's stronger neighbors and playing them against each another, Skubiszewski shaped and implemented a practical bandwagoning policy. His long-term objective centered on Poland's European re-integration and the dissertation argues that his non-threatening foreign policy constitutes a new state model for post-Cold War European security. Therefore, the dissertation offers a paradigm for how a post-Communist European state tries to overcome its security dilemma, without promoting predatory alignment against others, and re-establishes its sovereignty.