Assessing presidential behavior in economic downturns and election years from 1961 through 1988

This is a quantitative study of the American presidency. The subjects are six presidents, John F. Kennedy through Ronald W. Reagan. The author examines whether there is evidence to support the political axiom that presidents attempt to divert the nation's attention from economic affairs to foreign affairs when the economy is performing poorly. Two competing hypotheses are also presented and tested.; Secondary research areas are whether presidents increase the number of foreign affairs speeches given and the number of days spent traveling abroad in a presidential election year, and whether presidents increase their pursuit of major foreign policy initiatives when the economy is performing poorly or during a presidential election year.; The results show that there was insufficient evidence to support the political axiom even though the competing hypotheses were not accepted. Neither did the evidence support the hypotheses in our secondary research areas. A new variable, economic saliency, which measures attitudes about the national economy, performed quite well. Economic saliency is highly influenced by changes in unemployment and inflation. In turn, presidential job approval is significantly influenced by economic saliency.; The evidence suggests that economic conditions (unemployment and inflation) are extremely important to the American public and that presidents would be wise to devote greater attention to economic affairs, rather than foreign affairs, when trying to enhance their popularity or electoral chances.{dollar}sp*{dollar} ftn{dollar}sp*{dollar}Originally published in DAI vol. 56, no. 11. Reprinted here with corrected title.