The party politics of Presidential rhetoric

Presidents move public opinion by "going public." Challenging the scholarly consensus that presidents benefit little by speaking to the public, I show that presidential communications have a strong effect on Americans' policy preferences---once we recognize that presidents may be seeking to shape the opinions of fellow partisans more than the general public. Presidential communications also play an important role in shaping public assessments of which party can best handle various policy challenges. Reversing the causal arrow common in the parties literature, I show that party reputations for competence determine long-term partisan attachments, rather than party identification driving assessments of competence. My data include responses to Gallup's most important problem question from 1956 to 1999, content analysis of every major presidential address from President Eisenhower to President Clinton, and survey data of policy preferences on major policy initiatives of Presidents Reagan through Obama. Employing regression and time-series analyses, I reveal that actions of the presidents are not detached from the party system but instead drive the evolution of that system in important ways.