| In the coming decade a number public higher education systems in the United States will search for ways to accommodate surging enrollment demand that will far exceed their current capacity. One option for accommodating this growth is for campuses to convert to a year-round operation (YRO) calendar, in which the addition of a fully enrolled summer term may allow campuses to accommodate many more students without costly capital expansion. The purpose of this study was to develop a financial model capable of comparing the costs of operating a high enrollment growth campus on a year-round calendar with the costs of operating a similarly high enrollment growth campus on a traditional academic year (AY) calendar. To do so, all pertinent institutional variables were identified and quantified (operating costs, capital costs, etc.), including eight "key" variables whose values were either uncertain or readily subject to manipulation by an institution. A broad range of plausible values was considered for each key variable, resulting in a total of 7,776 "scenarios." A financial model was constructed that produces, for each scenario, cost outcomes for each operating system at the end of a 10-year enrollment growth period. Ninety-five percent of the scenarios result in the YRO system costing at least {dollar}50 million less than the AY system. A "Reasonable" scenario, in which some key variables associated with the YRO system are compromised somewhat from AY "quality" standards, is also favorable to YRO. However, a stricter "Quality" scenario, in which all key variables are set to maximize "educational quality" in the YRO system, results in YRO costing more than AY---though some small changes to this scenario can result in favorable YRO outcomes. A consideration of 48 scenarios intermediate between the "Reasonable" scenario and the "Quality" scenario results in favorable YRO outcomes in two-thirds of the cases. In summary, there are many plausible and reasonably "defensible" scenarios in which the adoption of a YRO system can save significant sums of money. Whether these scenarios could be implemented, however, depends primarily on the degree of quality "compromise" that an institution deems permissible for the summer term. |
